Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Kyle Larson
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Picking Kyle Larson at Talladega isn’t for the faint of heart, and the odds say something “bad” is likely looming. Larson’s had major problems in 6 of his last 9 races here, and since 2019 minus last spring (finished abnormally good), Larson’s average finish is 31.8. I’ll note, Larson’s looked sporty over the last three races but over the last two he’s still had major problems. In 2023 at big superspeedways over the combined events, Larson has a 26.0 average finish.
Talladega Track History – Talladega has been like a buzz saw for Kyle Larson in the results department and in 4 of his last 6 races he’s finished 33rd or worse. This spring, Larson didn’t look bad but as is norm, he crashed which led to his 33rd. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, was running in 6th before the start of overtime but then shortly after a restart in overtime, Larson was collected in Chastain caused carnage which led to him getting plowed into by Preece. Last year, Larson actually looked pretty good in both races. Last fall, Larson finished 8th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 10.9 average running position, led 8 laps but then in the last Stage for whatever reason, he just wasn’t at his best. With 9 to go, Larson was in 17th and when the checkered flag waved, he finished 18th. Last spring, Larson had a lucky charm or something and looked great. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a race best 4.8 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In his four races prior to that, Larson had results of 37th, 40th, 39th and 24th.

Martin Truex Jr.
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is winless at big superspeedways and Talladega has been a next level of brutal to him. Truex has had two recent good results but in 12 of the last 14 races, he’s finished 20th or worse so picking him is kind of asking for trouble. I’ll note, Truex has looked more competitive on this track type in the Next Gen (7th best Driver Rating, 5th best average running position, 16.9 average finish) but in 2023 his average finish is 22nd. On Sunday, I think Truex has upside but he’s certainly not safe and his recent form is troubling.
Talladega Track History – Talladega has been outright brutal to Truex for a prolonged period of time as you read above. Truex has had two good results recently but over the last two he’s finished 26th and 27th, so perhaps the good times are over already. This spring, Truex poised to get a top ten but on the last lap while running in 8th he crashed which led to his 27th. In the race, Truex finished 6th in Stage #2, had a 9.7 average running position and led 19 laps. Last fall, Truex finished a clunker 26th. His average running position was 28.8 and I would say it was a “Low Effort” afternoon. Last spring, Truex had a strong showing. In the race he finished 5th in Stage # 1, 4th in Stage #2, had an 8.1 average running position and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In fall 2021, Truex was solid and in the race he finished 12th and had a 14.4 average running position. Over his 10 Talladega races prior to that, Truex finished 20th or worse every race.

Tyler Reddick
Talladega Fantasy Spin – At Talladega, trouble is typically brewing for Tyler Reddick and over the last four races, Reddick has a near series worst 30.5 average finish. At big superspeedways, Reddick has sort of a hero or zero attribute to him. He’s capable of sneaking in really good results from time to time, but his overall track type DNF rate is 43.7%! In 2023 at big superspeedways, Reddick has a 26.6 average finish.
Talladega Track History – At Talladega, Tyler Reddick has a pair of 7th’s on his resume but in his other five starts, he’s finished 16th or worse. In recent races, Reddick’s been especially bad and in 3 of the last 4 he’s finished 28th or worse. This spring, Reddick finished 16th and had a 21.9 average running position. That’s a pretty good result when you consider he spun and hit pit road on lap 35 during the opening green flag pit cycle. Last fall, Reddick led 11 laps and would’ve won Stage #2 if he had just a splash more of gas. When the checkered flag waved, Reddick finished 28th. I’ll note, Reddick was mentioned to be missing 4th gear, so I’m kind of chalking up his bad result to that. With 30 to go before the final pit cycle he was in 9th but then with 16 to go following pit stops he was way back in 28th. In spring 2022, nobody had a shorter afternoon than Reddick and he finished last (38th) after an early engine failure. On lap 32 while running around 25th, he came to pit road having told his team his engine was off pitch, and he never returned to the track after that. In fall 2021, Reddick looked racy, but he also crashed which led to his 39th. In the race, Reddick finished 5th in Stage #1 but then on lap 98 he was collected in the carnage which led to his demise. Prior to his problem, Reddick ran well and was clearly a top ten contender. In the two Talladega races prior to that, Reddick had back-to-back 7th’s.

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