Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Las Vegas for the opening race for the “Round Of 8.” Winning this race is of crucial importance to championship contenders since the last two winners of race #1 in the “Round Of 8” have gone on to win the championship. It provides championship teams extra time to look ahead to the season finale.

Las Vegas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track with variable banking and moderate tire wear. To prepare for Las Vegas, make sure you study how drivers performed at other high-speed 1.5’s this season (2023 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings).

On Saturday, practice was held for Las Vegas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Las Vegas Practice Notes and Las Vegas 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Las Vegas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Las Vegas Full Field Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Las Vegas Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Las Vegas and on Sunday, he’ll be tough to beat. Larson had the field covered this spring until the late caution, and since 2017 minus last fall, Larson has 1-win and a 5.1 average finish. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile intermediates, Larson has been a standout performer. Over the five combined races on this sub-track type, Larson has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and minus asterisk mark results at Texas and Charlotte his average finish is 2.7. In practice, Larson was happy with his car and had the best 10-lap average. I’ll note, Larson had a tire scare, so there is some risk this weekend.
Las Vegas Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Las Vegas. Larson’s a recent winner (spring 2021) and since 2017 minus last fall, Larson has a 5.1 average finish. In 6 of his 11 races over that stretch, Larson’s come home with a top 3 finish. This spring, Larson was poised to get win #2 at Las Vegas but the late caution with 4-laps to go while leading robbed him of certain victory. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in the two opening Stages, led 63 laps, had a 2.2 average running position and ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, Larson was likely one of the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 35th. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1 but then early in Stage #2 while battling for 5th he had his run-in with Wallace and was wrecked. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Wallace ranked 5th. In spring 2022, Larson had a strong showing and finished runner-up. In the race, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and led 27 laps. I’ll note, Larson had quite a few problems in that race  so that’s a remarkable result. In 2021, Larson finished 10th in the fall (led 95 laps) and raced his way to victory lane in the spring (led 103 laps).
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +330

Further Recommended Reading = Las Vegas Finish Projections, DraftKings Las Vegas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Las Vegas Scoring Projections 

2) William Byron
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Las Vegas Outlook – At Las Vegas, William Byron will be tough to beat. Byron won at Las Vegas in the spring, he just recently won at Texas and in 2023 you could make a solid case he’s been the best driver at high-speed 1.5’s mile tracks. Byron is also red hot with three straight finishes in the top 2 heading into the weekend. There’s nothing to not like about Byron at Las Vegas. This year at high-speed 1.5’s minus Kansas #2, Byron has 2-wins, a 1.8 average finish, he’s had a result in the top 3 every race and he’s averaged leading 70.8 laps per race. For the season across all five high-speed 1.5’s visited, Byron ranks 3rd in terms of Total speed Rankings. In practice, Byron said his car was good in race trim and his 10-lap average ranked as the 2nd best.
Las Vegas Track Record Breakdown – This spring at Las Vegas, William Byron had a stellar showing. In the race, Byron won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.7 average running position, led 176 laps, earned the best driver rating and of course raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, Byron did need the assist of the late caution to reach victory lane because with 4 to go he was running in 2nd. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, Byron looked great but finished 13th. In the race, Byron finished 10th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and had a 7.7 average running position. With 32 to go he was running in 5th, but then during a caution shortly after that he got shuffled back. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 10th. In spring 2022, Byron finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, had a 6.5 average running position, led 8 laps, had the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 5th.
DraftKings $10,600/ FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +450

3) Tyler Reddick
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Las Vegas Outlook – At Las Vegas, look for Tyler Reddick to be a contender. Las Vegas has been a great track for Reddick and at Kansas the sister track, Reddick raced his way to victory lane a few weeks ago and was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking (was poised to finish in 2nd until the late caution came out). This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Reddick has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and minus misleading results at Kansas #1 and Texas his average finish is 5.0. In practice, the #45 was a stopwatch standout, having the 3rd best 10-lap average.
Las Vegas Track Record Breakdown – At Las Vegas, Tyler Reddick has performed at a high-level and over the last four races, Reddick has the 3rd best average finish (8.5) and in 3 of the 4 races he finished in either 6th or 7th. This spring in his first race in the #45 at a high-speed 1.5-mile track, Reddick started in the rear of the field and came home 15th but that’s a slightly misleading result. With 4 laps to go before the late caution came out, Reddick was running in 12th. Additionally, Reddick had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and was running as high as 6th on lap 196 when he got loose and into the wall. In his three races prior to that in his old ride, Reddick had results of 6th, 7th and 6th.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +800