Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Homestead Fantasy Spin – At Homestead, Kyle Larson is the premiere performer and on Sunday, the road to victory lane goes thru him. Larson has long performed at a super-elite level here and last year, Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane on a historic modern day NASCAR level. There’s nothing to not like about Larson. Larson’s been a standout performer at high-speed 1.5’s and he’s been one of the best at high-wear intermediates, having recently won at Darlington and having the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking over all the combined races since 2022. In 2023 between high-wear intermediates and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has the best Total Speed Ranking.
Homestead Track History – At Homestead, Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer. Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane last year in historic fashion and in 5 of the last 7 races, he’s finished in the top 5. Since 2015 minus misleading results in 2019 and 2018, Larson has a 3.0 average finish, a 4.2 average running position and he’s averaged leading 96.6 laps per race. Last year, Larson smoked the field and there’s no debate he was the class of the field. In the race, Larson won the two opening Stages, won the race, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps. In the race, Larson had a 10-second lead at times, and he even had to race hard at the end to earn his win since he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which dropped him back to 5th with 50 to go. In 2021 when Homestead was visited early in his #5 tenure, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 5 laps, had a 4.8 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 5th. In 2019 when he next most recently raced here, Larson was clearly a top five contender, but finished 40th after having engine problems with 55 laps to go. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and was running in 4th shortly before his early demise. In 2018, Larson had a great car, but finished an asterisk mark 13th. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 45 laps. Unfortunately, Larson’s race wasn’t incident free. On lap 193 while he was battling Martin Truex Jr. for 2nd he got into the wall. In his three races prior to that, Larson had results of 3rd, 2nd and 5th.

William Byron
Homestead Fantasy Spin – At Homestead, look for the 2021 winner, William Byron to be tough to beat. Byron’s proven he can reach victory lane here, he’s been a standout performer at high-speed 1.5’s throughout the season and he’s one of the best at high-wear intermediates, having the best Total Speed Ranking going back to 2022. Between high-speed 1.5’s and high-wear intermediates combined this year, Byron has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. The #24 team is also incredibly hot. There’s nothing to not like about Byron heading into the weekend. On Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Homestead Track History – At Homestead, William Byron is a recent winner who’s been one of the best. Over the last three races, Byron has a 7.3 average finish, the 2nd best average running position (6.7) and the 2nd best driver rating. Last year, Byron was one of the best but finished 12th. In the race, Byron won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a 6.5 average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 12th. For whatever reason, Byron just wasn’t at his best in the final Stage and he even had a slow pit stop during a green flag pit cycle where he had to backup to tighten a wheel. Byron’s 7th best Total Speed Ranking tells the tale of his afternoon with his speed over the segments being 2nd, 3rd, 12th and then 16th. In other speed stats, Byron ranked 3rd for Green Flag Speed and then 11th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Byron was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Byron started deep in the field in 31st, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, earned the best driver rating, had the best average running position (3.9) and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd, but I would really view it as first (others used pit strategy). In 2020, Byron had a great car and ran well throughout the race. In the event he finished 8th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, finished 9th overall and had a 9.7 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 7th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.

Tyler Reddick
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Tyler Reddick is an elite rim-rider who’ll be tough to beat at Homestead. Reddick’s been a super-elite performer at this high-wear intermediate and outside of last year between NASCAR’s top two divisions, Reddick’s finished in the top 4 in five of his six starts. With the speed Reddick’s shown at intermediates this year, I would pencil him in as a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Homestead Track History – At Homestead, Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer. Reddick’s won here twice in the Xfinity series and outside of last year in NASCAR’s top two divisions, he’s finished in the top 4 in five of his six starts. Last year in his old ride, Reddick started the race strong but then fell off over the course of the afternoon and then crashed late which led to his 35th. In the race, Reddick started 7th, ran as high as 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th when Stage #1 ended, had a slow pit stop during the Stage #1 caution which dropped him from 4th to outside the top ten, had another slow pit stop during green flag pit stops in Stage #2 that dropped him off the lead lap (was around the mid-teens prior to that) and then late in the race on lap 243 while running in the mid 20’s and struggling, Reddick crashed which brought out the final caution. In the race, Reddick had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking with his speed over the segments being 3rd, 14th, 18th and 19th. In 2021, Reddick wasn’t all that great, but when the money was on the line, Reddick moved up to the top groove and maneuvered his way to a 2nd place finish. In the race, Reddick started 35th and had a 17.6 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Reddick was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, and his Total Speed Ranking was the 15th best, but take note in the final segment he was at his best and ranked 6th. In 2020, Reddick was impressive and finished 4th. In the race, Reddick started in 24th but drove up through the running order with ease. On lap 12 he was in 10th, and then on lap 27 he was up to 2nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranked #1 and was the fastest driver in segments #2 and #4. Also in the race, Reddick had a 3.9 average running position, finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2 and ranked as the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.

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