Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Homestead for the 4Ever 400! Homestead is a unique symmetrical 1.5-mile track where tire wear is extreme, and pit strategy consists of taking 4 tires every pitstop. The high-line is the fast-line, and the best of the best have consistently shined here over the years.

In terms of correlation, I like to study high-wear intermediates (Auto Club and Darlington), and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte and Texas). I will note, Homestead is a pretty unique beast but there’s takeaways from both groups. Here’s High-Wear Intermediate Track Total Speed Rankings and High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings.

On Saturday, practice was held for Homestead. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Homestead Practice Notes and Homestead 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the Homestead Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Homestead Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Homestead Outlook – At Homestead, Kyle Larson is the premiere performer and on Sunday, there’s no question he’s the driver to beat. Larson smoked the field in historic Next Gen fashion last year, and his plans this weekend are to dominate again. At tracks where there’s correlation, Larson’s been great and in 2023 he has the best Total Speed Ranking at High-Speed 1.5’s, and at high-wear intermediates. In practice, Larson was a stopwatch standout and had the best 15-lap average.
Homestead Track Record Breakdown – At Homestead, Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer. Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane last year and in 5 of the last 7 races, he’s finished in the top 5. Since 2015 minus misleading results in 2019 and 2018, Larson has a 3.0 average finish, a 4.2 average running position and he’s averaged leading 96.6 laps per race. Last year, Larson thoroughly smoked the field and had what I would call a perfect race. In the race, Larson won the two opening Stages, won the race, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking fielding the fastest car over all four segments, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps. In the race, Larson had a 10-second lead at times, and he even had to race hard at the end to earn his win since he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle. In 2021 at Homestead, which was just race #3 overall for him in the #5, Larson finished 4th, had a 4.8 average running position and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019 when he next most recently raced here, Larson was clearly a top five contender, but finished 40th after having engine problems with 55 laps to go while running in 4th. In 2018, Larson had a great car, but finished an asterisk mark 13th. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 45 laps. Unfortunately, Larson’s race wasn’t incident free. On lap 193 while he was battling Martin Truex Jr. for 2nd he got into the wall. In his three races prior to that, Larson had results of 3rd, 2nd and 5th.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Homestead Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Homestead Scoring Projections, FanDuel Homestead Scoring Projections

2) Tyler Reddick
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Homestead Outlook – Tyler Reddick is an elite-rim rider who’ll be tough to beat at Homestead. In NASCAR’s top two divisions at this worn out intermediate, Reddick’s won twice (all Xfinity) and in 5 of his 6 starts he’s finished in the top 4. With the speed Reddick’s shown at intermediates this year, pencil him in as a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Homestead Track Record Breakdown – Last year at Homestead in the Xfinity series, Reddick started the race strong but then fell off over the course of the afternoon and then crashed late and finished 35th. In the race, Reddick started 7th, ran as high as 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th when Stage #1 ended, had a slow pit stop during the Stage #1 caution which dropped him from 4th to outside the top ten, had another slow pit stop during green flag pit stops in Stage #2 that dropped him off the lead lap (was around the mid-teens prior to that) and then late in the race on lap 243 while running in the mid 20’s, Reddick crashed which brought out the final caution. In 2021, Reddick wasn’t all that great, but when the money was on the line, Reddick moved up to the top groove and raced his way to a 2nd place finish. In the race, Reddick started 35th and had a 17.6 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Reddick was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, and his Total Speed Ranking was the 15th best, but take note in the final segment he was at his best and ranked 6th. In 2020, Reddick was impressive and finished 4th. In the race, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking and a 3.9 average running position.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,000 

3) William Byron
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Homestead Outlook – At Homestead, William Byron the 2021 winner will be tough to beat. Byron’s proven he can reach victory lane here and he’s been a standout performer at high-speed 1.5’s and high-wear intermediates. Between high-speed 1.5’s and high-wear intermediates combined this year; Byron has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. When it comes to high-wear intermediates, Byron has the best Total Speed Ranking in the Next Gen going back to 2022. In practice, Byron was fast and the #24 crew liked his long run speed and felt like he was one of the best.
Homestead Track Record Breakdown – At Homestead, William Byron is one of the best. He’s a recent winner (2021) and over the last three races, Byron has a 7.3 average finish, the 2nd best average running position (6.7) and the 2nd best driver rating. Last year, Byron was one of the best but finished 12th. In the race, Byron won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a 6.5 average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 12th. For whatever reason, Byron just wasn’t at his best in the final Stage and he also had a slow pit stop during a green flag pit cycle where he had to backup to tighten a wheel. Byron’s 7th best Total Speed Ranking tells the tale of his afternoon with his speed over the segments being 2nd, 3rd, 12th and then 16th. In 2021, Byron was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Byron started deep in the field in 31st, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, earned the best driver rating, had the best average running position (3.9) and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd, but I would really view it as first (others used pit strategy). In 2020, Byron finished 9th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500