Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, look for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to be a high-teens to low-twenties driver. Stenhouse snuck in an 8th this spring but to find his next most recent top ten, you have to go back to 2017, so you can say that result wasn’t typical. Overall, in 6 of the last 8 Martinsville races he’s finished between 15th to 22nd, and I would expect more of the same on Sunday.
Martinsville Track History – This spring at Martinsville, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had his best race ever in his 21 starts and finished 8th. That said, Stenhouse had a 16.7 average running position, the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and was in 16th on lap 282 which is a great reference point before wild things started to happen in the last 100 laps. I’ll note, a caution on lap 342 was very beneficial for him and had him propelled up to 4th on lap 350. Over the six Martinsville races prior to that, Stenhouse had a 20.6 average finish and a 21.6 average running position. Last fall, Stenhouse was a low 20’s performer. In the race he finished 22nd, had a 24.9 average running position and had the 29th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Stenhouse had his worst recent Martinsville performance and finished 27th. Additionally, Stenhouse had a 27.1 average running position and the 26th best Total Speed Ranking.

Michael McDowell
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, keep expectations low for Michael McDowell and I think you can safely pencil him in for a high-teens to mid-twenties finish. Over the last four Martinsville races he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 17th to 26th and has a 21.75 average finish.
Martinsville Track History – Martinsville by no measure has been a good track for Michael McDowell with him only cracking the top 15 once in his career, and that was a 14th. Currently, McDowell has back-to-back high-teens finishes, so that’s encouraging by his low standards here. This spring, McDowell started 20th, finished 19th, had a 21.8 average running position and had the 28th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, McDowell finished 17th which ranks as his 2nd best Martinsville result, ever. In addition to finishing 17th, McDowell had a 16.4 average running position, the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 24th for speed late in a run. In spring 2022, McDowell had a mid-twenties day. In the race he finished 25th, had a 23.6 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking.

Corey LaJoie
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, look for Corey LaJoie to be a high-teens to mid-twenties driver. In 5 of the last 8 races at “The Paper Clip”, he’s finished between 18th to 26th, so that’s a trend I could see him extend. Over the last four Martinsville races minus spring 2022, LaJoie’s average finish is 22.6.
Martinsville Track History – Corey LaJoie hasn’t been bad at Martinsville, given his tier and as you read above, in 5 of the last 8 races he’s finished between 18th to 26th. This spring, LaJoie finished 26th, had a 23.2 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, LaJoie was simply a low 20’s performer. In the race he finished 21st, had a 19.4 average running position and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022 under the lights, LaJoie struggled. In the race, LaJoie finished 32nd, had a 30.5 average running position and had the 32nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 4 of the 5 Martinsville races prior to that, LaJoie finished between 18th to 25th.

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