Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Martinsville to battle it out to set the “Final Four!” Martinsville is the oldest, shortest and slowest track on the circuit, but the action can be second to none. NASCAR is a contact sport, and I think there will be a ton of action on Sunday. Desperate drivers do desperate things, so the intensity will be turned up a dial.

On Saturday, practice was held for Martinsville. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Martinsville Practice Notes, Martinsville Practice Speeds, and Martinsville 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Martinsville Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Martinsville Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Martinsville Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Martinsville who’ll be tough to beat as he vies for “The Final Four.” At “The Paper Clip”, Hamlin’s a 5-time winner and in 51% of his starts, he’s finished in the top 5. This spring, I would argue Hamlin was subjectively the strongest, so I have no doubt the #11 will be strong. Currently in the Next Gen at Martinsville, Hamlin has back-to-back top fives and has had the best Total Speed Ranking over the last two.
Martinsville Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is one of the best in the business at Martinsville. Since fall 2018 minus the two-night races and fall 2021 where he was spun out late while leading, Hamlin has a 5.0 average finish. This spring, Hamlin had a hot rod and finished 4th. In the race, Hamlin finished 8th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 5.6 average running position, led 36 laps and was the race leader on lap 282, which is a great reference point before “Mayhem” started to ensue over the last 100 laps. Additionally, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and ranked 2nd for Green Flag Speed. Last fall, Hamlin had a great car but pit stops took him out of contention late. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 203 laps, had a 3.9 average running position and finished 5th. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2022 under the lights, the #11 was junk and Hamlin finished 28th. In the race, Hamlin got lapped in Stage #1, had a 25.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 24th best. In fall 2021, Hamlin started in the rear of the field but nearly raced his way to victory lane before getting spun out by Bowman late while leading which led to his asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Hamlin led 103 laps and finished 5th in Stage #2. In spring 2021, Hamlin led 276 laps but was outraced at the end and finished 3rd.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Martinsville Finish Projections, DraftKings Martinsville Scoring Projections, FanDuel Martinsville Scoring Projections

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Martinsville Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is one of the premiere performers at Martinsville and on Sunday if he’s going to make the “Final Four”, he’ll need to come up big and show up for the first time in the post-season. With Truex starting on the pole and being happy with his car, watch out because he’ll be dangerous.
Martinsville Track Record Breakdown – At Martinsville, Truex ranks among the best. He’s a three-time winner and since fall 2017, he’s finished in the top eight 75% of the time. I’ll note, Truex hasn’t been at his best here recently and in 2 of the last 3 races he’s finished in the low 20’s. This spring, Truex snuck in a 3rd. In the race, Truex started 5th, was caught speeding during a caution around lap 133 while running in 11th which dropped him back to about 30th, and was in 26th on lap 282, before late wildness in the last 100 laps. On lap 301, Truex caught a lucky break caution when most of the field pitted and he didn’t which got him up to 11th and then he closed the race pretty strong, having the 5th fastest car on the track over the last 100 laps. Last fall, Truex struggled. In the race he finished 20th, had a 22.1 average running position and had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Truex was likely low-teens good but finished an asterisk mark 22nd due to a flat tire in the last 100 laps. In 2021, Truex had results of 1st and 4th.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $12,500

3) Brad Keselowski
Start 10th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Martinsville Outlook – At Martinsville, look for Brad Keselowski to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. At “The Paper Clip”, Keselowski’s a 2-time winner and in 12 of the last 17 races, he’s finished in the top five. In fall Martinsville races, Keselowski’s been “Mr. October” with 7-straight top fives and a 3.1 average finish over his hot streak going back to fall 2016 (counting where he crossed the finish line last year).
Martinsville Track Record Breakdown – Martinsville is one of Brad Keselowski’s best tracks and as you read above, he’s been especially strong in the fall. At “The Paper Clip”, Keselowski’s a two-time winner and since 2016 (last 15 races), Keselowski has 11 top fives and only three results outside the top ten. This spring, Keselowski finished 24th, but I wouldn’t read into that result. “Performance Wise”, I think he was a top five contender, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Keselowski finished 5th in Stage #2, led 7 laps and was running in 5th on lap 282 before he was burned by a caution on lap 301 during a green flag pit cycle which dropped him back to about 20th. Last fall, Keselowski had a great race and “crossed the finish line” in 4th, despite his afternoon not being incident free. In the race, Keselowski finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 but then right at the start of the final Stage while battling for 8th, Chastain spun him. Additionally, Keselowski had a 7.4 average running position, the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 7th for speed late in a run. I’ll note, in the results column for that race you’ll see an ugly 36th, but I choose to view it as a 4th for fantasy purposes. Last spring, Keselowski finished just outside the top ten in Stage #1, but then he got penalized which dropped him to the back. After that, he simply never bounced back. In the race, Keselowski finished 17th, had a 17.3 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $9,500 / FanDuel $11,500