Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, the #5 will unload fast and Kyle Larson will be tough to beat as he vies for his 2nd championship. Larson and the #5 team have had weeks to focus ahead for the Season Finale, so you better believe he’ll have a hot rod that will be tough to beat. At Phoenix, Larson ranks as one of the premiere performers. Larson was a standout performer this spring (poised to finish in 2nd before late cautions), he won here in fall 2021 when the championship was on the line and in 8 of the last 9 races, he’s finished in the top ten. Over Larson’s last five Phoenix races minus spring 2022 where his engine blew up, Larson has a 5.3 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Larson has been stout. Larson won Richmond #1, finished in the top five in 4 of the 5 races and has the 6th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level. Since fall 2018 minus spring 2022, Larson has a 4.8 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 9 every race. This spring, the #5 was stout and of the “Championship Four”, Larson was the best. In the race, Larson won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating, led 201 laps and was poised to finish in 2nd, before late “mayhem” ensued which led to his 4th. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Green Flag Speed and the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Larson’s Total Speed Ranking tells the tale of his afternoon with his speed by segment rankings being 2nd, 1st, 1st and then 10th at the end. Last fall, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position and then finished 9th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th. In spring 2022, Larson was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson finished 7th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, but on lap 236 his engine started going south. Twenty laps prior to his problem he was running in 5th. In fall 2021 en route to capturing the title, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 107 laps and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, if there wasn’t a late caution which propelled him from 4th to the lead, there’s no chance he was going to win.

Ryan Blaney
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, look for Ryan Blaney to be a factor as he battles for the championship. Blaney’s never won in the desert, but you could argue he was the best last fall, he’s been the best here in the Next Gen (2.7 average finish) and since 2019 minus spring 2020 where he crashed, he’s finished in the top ten every race and has an impressive 4.3 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Blaney’s had quite a bit of problems but his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 4th best.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Ryan Blaney is one of the premiere performers, despite being winless. Currently, Blaney has back-to-back runner-ups and over the combined races in the Next Gen, Blaney has a 2.7 average finish, a 4.7 average running position, the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading 84 laps per race. Currently, Blaney has six straight top tens with his average finish being 4.6 over his streak. This spring, Blaney ran well throughout the race and then snuck in a 2nd at the end. In the race, Blaney finished 6th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 7.5 average running position and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, with 17 to go before late cautions came out, Blaney was poised to finish in 6th. Last fall, Blaney was stout, and I wouldn’t disagree with anyone if they said he had the best car. Logano was competing for the title, and Blaney did what a good teammate would do in the circumstance. In the race, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 109 laps, had a 2.2 average running position and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Blaney was tied with Logano for being the fastest. Last spring, Blaney was strong. In the race, Blaney won the pole, won Stage #2, led a race high 143 laps, earned the best driver rating, had a 4.5 average running position and then finished 4th. Blaney even got a speeding penalty while leading during the lap 25 competition caution, so that makes his afternoon a little more impressive. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and 4th for speed late in a run.

Christopher Bell
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Christopher Bell is a shorter-flat track ace who’ll be tough to beat at Phoenix for the championship. Bell’s one of the premiere shorter-flat track drivers and with extra time to focus ahead to the season finale, there’s no question he’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Since 2021 at shorter-flat tracks minus Phoenix #1 2022, New Hampshire 2023 and Richmond #2 2023, Bell has a 5.8 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks over the combined races, Bell has the 8th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Christopher Bell has been stout and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished between 6th to 10th. Over that stretch minus spring 2022 where he was top ten good but had a misleading result, Bell has an 8.0 average finish. This spring, Bell finished 6th but take note he performed better than his result. In the race, Bell finished 3rd in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had a 4.8 average running position and was poised to likely finish in 3rd before late cautions broke out. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run, 4th for Green Flag Speed and 4th for Total Speed Rankings. Over the final quarter of the race, take note the #20 was the 2nd fastest car on the track. Last fall when he was up for title contention, Bell was likely a top five contender but problems on pit road late led to an asterisk mark 10th. In Stage #2 he finished 6th, but then in the final Stage around lap 267 while running in 5th, the #20 team had a slow stop that dropped him back to the teens. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 3rd for speed late in a run, and 8th for Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, but then during the Stage #1 caution he had a slow stop that dropped him from 6th to 21st. Then later in Stage #2 on lap 119 while he was running around the mid-teens, he had a flat tire and spun. After that you could stick a fork in his competitive afternoon, and he went on to finish 26th. In 2021, Bell swept the top ten with a pair of 9th place finishes.

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