Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Austin Dillon
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, Austin Dillon presents teens potential for those looking to pick him and in 5 of the last 6 races, he’s finished between 13th to 18th. 2023 has been a brutal year for him and if he can notch another, I would consider it a successful day for him. I’ll note, in the last two races held at shorter-flat tracks (New Hampshire and Richmond #2), Dillon currently has back-to-back 9th’s, so he presents some upside this weekend but ultimately its best to just view him as a risky teens driver.
Phoenix Track History – As you read above, Austin Dillon has finished between 13th to 18th in 5 of the last 6 Phoenix races. Over the last six races which outline his current streak, Dillon has a 16.7 average finish and an 18.8 average running position. This spring, Dillon finished 16th but it’s hard to say he was that good. For the afternoon his average running position was 25.3 and with 17 to go before late mayhem ensued, he was in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 27th.  Last fall, Dillon had a solid showing. In the race he finished 13th and had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Dillon had a great car and was without a doubt a top ten contender, but he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Dillon finished 10th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had a 9.8 average running position but on the last lap while battling for 7th, Dillon had contact with Suarez and crashed. In terms of speed stats, Dillon ranked 3rd for speed late in a run, and 10th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Dillon finished 15th in the fall and then 17th in the spring.

Erik Jones
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, I’m a little concerned about Erik Jones operating in early vacation mode and regardless, he doesn’t present a lot of upside. In 6 of his last 7 Phoenix races, he’s finished in the 20’s so that’s quite a trend. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Jones has the 27th best Total Speed Ranking and minus New Hampshire where he finished 11th, he’s finished 18th or worse over the other four. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a 20’s performer but note he’s capable of having upside.
Phoenix Track History – As you read above, Erik Jones has finished in the 20’s in 6 of the last 7 races. This spring, Jones started 10th, had a 17.9 average running position and then finished 21st. I’ll note, Jones was caught speeding on pit road in Stage #2, but he was running back in the 20’s at that time anyways. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 24th. In 2022, Jones was actually 2 for 2 at looking like a teens performer. Last November, Jones started 30th, finished 14th, had a 14.8 average running position and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Jones finished 25th but I’ll note that’s an asterisk mark result. On lap 286 while he was running in 15th, he had a flat tire and crashed which did a lot of damage to the #43. If his race would’ve been incident free, I would say he looked poised to finish around the mid-teens.

AJ Allmendinger
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, I can’t say I’m expecting much from AJ Allmendinger, other than a high-teens finish at best. Allmendinger finished 20th this spring and overall, in 5 of his last 7 races in the desert he’s finished in the 20’s. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Allmendinger has the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and in 4 of the 5 races on this track type he’s finished 19th or worse.
Phoenix Track History – This spring at Phoenix, AJ Allmendinger had a pretty un-notable performance and finished 20th. In the race, Allmendinger had a 21.6 average running position and the 25th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Allmendinger had a solid showing. In the race he started 16th, had a 15.7 average running position and then finished 12th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Allmendinger ranked 10th for Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Allmendinger finished 20th and had a 24.6 average running position.

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