Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be crowning the 2023 champion at Phoenix! The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the drivers who’ll be battling it out in the winner take all (highest finisher) battle royal are Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and William Byron. I joke the championship four have an extra +100 horsepower, and for whatever reason championship contenders always seem to step it up to the next level in the season finale, at least so far. On Sunday, I think they’ll be the drivers to beat again.

On Friday, NASCAR held an extended practice session for Phoenix. Make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes and our Phoenix 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Phoenix Qualifying Results.

Phoenix Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) William Byron
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – At Phoenix, look for William Byron the spring winner to be a factor as he battles it out for the title. The #24 team has fielded the fastest car in 2023 in terms of Total Speed Rankings, and I don’t think he’ll disappoint in the desert from the pole. The last three Phoenix fall polesitters have gone on to win the title, so that’s a great omen for Byron. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Byron’s had quite a bit of problems, but he did win here in the spring and has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking over the combined races. In practice, the #24 was stout. Byron had the 2nd best 20-lap average, and he ended the session with a long run, with his team liking his speed.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – At Phoenix, William Byron has been strong. Byron raced his way to victory lane this spring and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top ten. Over the last two in the desert, Byron has a 3.5 average finish, a 5.3 average running position and his driver rating ranks as the 2nd best. This spring en route to victory lane, Byron started 3rd, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 64 laps, had a 2.5 average running position and earned the best driver rating. I will note, Byron was poised to likely finish in 4th before late “Cautions/Chaos” ensued. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. In fall 2022, Byron was strong. In the race, Byron finished 7th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had an 8.1 average running position and then finished 6th. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Byron won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 5.7 average running position and led 12 laps but finished 18th. The #24 didn’t seem to keep up with changing track conditions and I’ll also note with 3 to go he was in 12th, so he lost quite a few over the closing laps.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,000 

Further Recommended Reading = Phoenix Finish Projections, DraftKings Phoenix Scoring Projections, FanDuel Phoenix Scoring Projections

2) Kyle Larson
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – At Phoenix for the Season Finale, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat as he vies for his 2nd championship. Larson’s been stellar here, he’s arguably been the best at shorter-flat tracks in 2023 and the #5 team has had weeks to focus ahead for the Season Finale, so there’s no question he’ll have a highly tuned hot rod. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Larson’s been stout. Larson won Richmond #1, finished in the top five in 4 of the 5 races and has the 6th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. Late in practice, Larson was said to have found speed, so you better believe he’ll be dangerous.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – At Phoenix, Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level and since fall 2018 minus spring 2022, Larson has a 4.8 average finish. Over the last two races in the desert, Larson has the best driver rating and the best average running position (3.9). This spring, Larson had a stellar showing and was the strongest of the “Final Four.” In the race, Larson won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating, led 201 laps and was poised to finish in 2nd, before late cautions/mayhem broke out at the end. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Green Flag Speed and the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Larson had a strong showing. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position and then finished 9th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th. In spring 2022, Larson was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson finished 7th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, but on lap 236 while running around 5th his engine started going south which led to his early exit. In fall 2021 when Larson was competing for the championship, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 107 laps and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the five Phoenix races prior to that, Larson had results of 7th, 4th, 4th, 6th and 3rd.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000 

3) Kevin Harvick
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – At Phoenix, Kevin Harvick is a dominator in the desert, and he’ll go in the history books as the best there is, the best there was, and the best there ever will be. At this shorter-flat track, Harvick is a 9-time winner who has 20-straight top tens! This spring, Harvick likely would’ve added to his win tally if there wasn’t late “Cautions/Chaos.” This year at shorter-flat tracks, Harvick has been one of the best and over the five combined races, Harvick is tied for the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, has the 3rd best average finish (6.8) and he’s the only driver who’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top ten. In practice, Harvick was fast and was extremely good over a long run. Harvick ranked 4th for 10,15 and 20 lap averages and ranked #1 for 25 lap averages.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – At Phoenix, Kevin Harvick is a legend as you just read above. In the Next Gen in the desert over the combined races, Harvick has a 5.3 average finish, a 5.6 average running position, the 3rd best driver rating and he’s 3 for 3 at finishing in either 5th or 6th. This spring, Harvick had control of the race late and was likely a lock to notch his 10th Phoenix win until Harrison Burton spun in the closing laps which ushered in late “Cautions/chaos” which led to his 5th. In the race, Harvick finished 8th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 5.1 average running position and led 36 laps. In terms of speed stats, Harvick was the fastest driver late in a run, had the fastest car on the track over the last quarter of the race, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and the 3rd best Green Flag Speed. Last year, Harvick had strong showings of 5th and 6th, but I’ll note he was marginally better than his result in both races.
DraftKings $9,500 / FanDuel $11,000