Busch Light Clash Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Erik Jones
Clash Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones is 2 for 2 at making the Clash and his results are at polar opposite ends of the spectrum, with him finishing last in 2023 and in the top five in 2022. In the #43’s Toyota debut, I think he’ll likely split the difference and have a mid-pack afternoon.
Clash Track History – Last year in the Clash, nobody had a shorter afternoon than Erik Jones. On lap 17 while running in 21st, Jones spun and broke his toe link which marked the end of his race leading to his last place 27th. In a post DNF interview, Jones said he felt like he had a decent car and he felt good about it. In 2022, Jones wasn’t afraid to get rough, and even a usually calm Ryan Blaney threw his Hans device at the #43 and accused Jones of destroying the #12 car just battling for 7th. In the race, Jones started 16th, had an 8.3 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Jones ranked 4th for Total Speed Rankings, 4th for speed late in a run and 6th for Green Flag Speed.

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Michael McDowell
Clash Fantasy Outlook – At the LA Coliseum, Michael McDowell has two starts under his belt and has a 20.0 average finish, so make sure you have low expectations for him. McDowell hasn’t run well in either previous race and his 19th (spring) and 25th (fall) at Martinsville last year aren’t exactly confidence inspiring that there will be a turn around.
Clash Track History – Last year in the Clash, Michael McDowell had a tough race and finished 24th. McDowell advanced in thru the Last Chance Qualifier and that led to “fuel DNF issues” for him since he ran out. NASCAR had some sort of fuel rule in 2023 where teams weren’t allowed to refuel after the Heat Races. On lap 136 just prior to his fuel issue which ended his evening, McDowell was running in 16th. In 2022, Michael McDowell finished a lap down in 16th. Every driver who finished below him had some sort of notable problem, other than Bubba Wallace. In terms of speed analytics, McDowell ranked 15th for Total Speed Rankings and 19th for Green Flag Speed.

Noah Gragson
Clash Fantasy Outlook – In the Clash, Noah Gragson’s “road to redemption” tour will kick off and he might just be better than most are expecting, that said I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a disappointment. In 2024, Gragson will be in a more competitive situation in the SHR #10, and performing at a track like the Coliseum was a strength for the organization last year. Ryan Preece was arguably the best in this race last year, and the #10 that he now pilots finished 2nd at Martinsville last fall, and I view that as the best comp track. To play it safe, I would just view Gragson as a roll of the dice dark horse.
Clash Track History – Last year in the Clash in his only start in this exhibition event in the less competitive #42, Noah Gragson had a mid-pack afternoon. In the race, Gragson finished 14th, had a 13.7 average running position, ranked 17th for Green Flag Speed and then 20th for Speed Late In A Run.

Daniel Suarez
Clash Fantasy Outlook – Daniel Suarez will be looking to get off to a hot start after a disappointing 2023 in the Clash. Suarez is 2 for 2 at advancing to the Clash so far, so I think there’s a good chance he’ll make the “Main Event” again. That said, Suarez is 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens with a 16.5 average finish, so I can’t say I would expect much from him other than him finishing in the back half of the field again.
Clash Track History – Daniel Suarez hasn’t had a high-level of success in the Clash, but he’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens and has a 16.5 average finish. Last year in the “Main Event”, Suarez started 19th, finished 19th, had the 15th best Green Flag Speed and had a 16.3 average running position. I’ll note, Suarez was involved in a minor accident when Blaney spun and he ran into the nose of the #12, but ultimately, I would say it was no big deal to him. In 2022, Suarez started 5th, had an 11.2 average running position and then finished 14th. In terms of speed analytics, Suarez ranked 14th for speed late in a run, 16th for green flag speed and then 17th for Total Speed Rankings.

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