Las Vegas Pennzoil 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Las Vegas for the first non-superspeedway race of the year. In some ways, the real season will finally be getting kicked off. Las Vegas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track with variable banking and moderate tire wear. There will be some big competitive question marks heading into Sunday (New Ford Dark Horse, New Camry XSE and other things), but those questions will start to get answered on race day.
On Saturday, practice was held for Las Vegas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s. Make sure you check out our Las Vegas Practice Notes and Las Vegas 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Las Vegas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
New for 2024 for those in a hurry, check out our Las Vegas “Quick Rankings.”
Las Vegas Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Las Vegas Outlook – Kyle Larson is the premiere performer at Las Vegas and on Sunday, the #5 will be fast and the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. Larson put on a display of domination last fall en route to victory lane, he also would’ve won last spring if there wasn’t a late caution and since 2017 minus fall 2022, Larson has 2-wins, a 4.7 average finish and in 7 of the 12 races he’s finished in the top 3. Last year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating, the best Average Running Position, he averaged leading the most laps per race (80) and his average finish minus Texas and Charlotte was 2.3. In practice, Larson was happy with his car and he was fast, ranking #1 in terms of 5,10,15 and 20 lap averages. On Sunday, Larson will start in 2nd, both 2023 Las Vegas races were won from this starting position.
Las Vegas Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been stellar at Las Vegas and in the Next Gen, Larson has the best Next Gen Total Speed Ranking and a 1.7 average finish minus fall 2022. Last fall, Larson put on a display of domination and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 133 laps (49.8% of the race) and earned a near perfect Driver Rating. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Green Flag Speed and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Larson had the race all but won but was robbed by the late caution with 4 laps to go and went on to finish 2nd. In the race, Larson led 63 laps, had a 2.2 average running position and ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Larson was a top five contender in the fall but was crashed (Finished 35th) and then finished 2nd in the spring.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000
2) William Byron
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Las Vegas Outlook – William Byron is the defending spring winner at Las Vegas and on Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Byron’s been elite at Las Vegas and another key variable I really like about him is how strong he was at high-speed 1.5’s in 2023. Last year on this sub-track type, Byron won twice, had a series best 4.8 average finish, earned the 2nd best driver rating and had the 3rd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Byron ranked 2nd across the board in terms of 5,10,15 and 20 lap averages.
Las Vegas Track Record Breakdown – William Byron has been an elite at Las Vegas and over the combined races in the Nex Gen, Byron has the best Driver Rating, the best Average Running Position (5.4), has the 3rd best average finish (6.5) and has the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last fall, Byron had a strong showing. In the race, Byron finished 10th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 5.5 average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 7th. In spring 2023, Byron had a stellar showing and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Byron won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.7 average running position, led 176 laps and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked #1 across the board for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. I’ll note, Byron did need that late caution with 4 laps to go to propel him to victory lane, without it he was poised to finish in 2nd. In 2022, Byron finished 13th in the fall (top five contender, poor pit strategy late) and then finished 5th in the spring.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,500
Further Recommended Reading – Las Vegas Finish Projections, DraftKings Las Vegas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Las Vegas Scoring Projections
3) Bubba Wallace
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Las Vegas Outlook – At Las Vegas, look for Bubba Wallace to perform at a high-level and potentially be a factor. Wallace was one of the best at high-speed 1.5’s last year and he’s shown good speed at Las Vegas in the Next Gen. Last year at high-speed 1.5’s, Wallace had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and for the season minus Kansas #2 where he had problems while running in 2nd, his average finish was 5.6. In practice, Wallace was happy with his car and ranked among the fastest in Group A.
Las Vegas Track Record Breakdown – At Las Vegas, Bubba Wallace has been fast and in the Next Gen, his Las Vegas Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 10th best. Last year, the #23 was solid and between the combined races, Wallace had an 8.5 average finish, an 11.0 average running position and the 11th best Driver Rating. Last fall when the #23 team was eliminated from the Playoffs, Wallace finished 13th which was sort of a letdown. Additionally, Wallace had the 14th best Driver Rating and a 14.2 average running position. In spring 2023, Wallace had a strong showing and finished 4th. Additionally, Wallace finished 8th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 7.8 average running position and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Wallace had a pair of asterisk mark results. That year he was a top five contender in the fall but went kamikaze on Larson (finished 36th) and was running in 13th with 4 laps to go in the spring before he spun himself out to avoid hitting Erik Jones (25th).
DraftKings $8,700 / FanDuel $8,200
