On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Phoenix, where in November the 2024 champion will be crowned. Change is in the air this weekend with a brand-new rules package getting rolled out. The drivers have described it ranging from 10% better (Hamlin), feels the same and to worse, so buckle up for an interesting Sunday. Ultimately, we won’t really know what’s going on until they line up all 36 cars and race.

On Friday, NASCAR held an extended 55-minute practice session for teams to setup their cars for the new rules package. One general consensus from practice is that the Toyota’s were stout. That said, many drivers got better over the course of the session and overnight changes which we won’t see until the race could be big performance swings for some teams.

Make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes, Phoenix 5,10,15,20, 25 and 30 lap average speed cheat sheet and Phoenix Practice Speeds and 10 Lap Averages. 

Full Field Phoenix Fantasy Rankings

1) William Byron
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – At Phoenix, look for William Byron, the defending spring champ to be a factor. Last year in the desert, Byron was a standout performer, racing his way to victory lane in the spring, finishing 4th in the fall and then over the combined races having the best Total Speed Ranking, the Best Driver Rating, the best Average Running Position (2.9) and an impressive 2.5 average finish. Last year at shorter-flat tracks over the combined races, Byron had the best Driver Rating, the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best average running position. In practice, Byron was by no means a stopwatch standout, but I think the #24 team is all tuned up to contend after overnight changes.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – William Byron ranks among the premiere performers at Phoenix. Byron raced his way to victory lane last spring and over the combined races in the Next Gen, Byron has the best Total Speed Ranking. Over the last three Phoenix races, Byron’s 3.6 average finish ranks as the 2nd best. Last fall when he was battling it out for the championship, Byron won Stage # 1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 95 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating, had a 3.3 average running position and then finished 4th. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the 2nd best Speed Ranking and ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2023 en route to victory lane, Byron started 3rd, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 64 laps, had a 2.5 average running position and earned the best driver rating. I will note, Byron was poised to likely finish in 4th before late cautions/mayhem ensued but he was able to take advantage of the situation. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking but ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Byron finished 6th in the fall and then finished an asterisk mark 18th in the spring due to late chaos. I’ll note he was running in 12th before late mayhem ensued in that race.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,000

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2) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – Denny Hamlin is arguably the premiere shorter-flat track racer in NASCAR and at Phoenix, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and over the last four races on this sub-track type, Hamlin had a pair of runner-ups and a 4.75 average finish. In practice, Hamlin looked solid and ranked 5th in terms of 20-lap averages.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – At Phoenix, Denny Hamlin has been elite. Hamlin’s a two-time winner and since 2019 minus last spring and spring 2020, Hamlin has a 5.6 average finish. Last fall after just missing the “Final Four”, Hamlin was just OK. In the race, Hamlin finished 8th, had a 9.8 average running position, earned the 9th best Driver Rating and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin was a top ten performer but finished an asterisk mark 23rd, after having his “You’re coming with me buddy” moment in overtime with Ross Chastain. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 5.8 average running position and looked poised to finish in 9th before late cautions/mayhem ensued. During overtime when he had his “You’re coming with me buddy” moment with Chastain, Hamlin was in 6th. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 7th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022 when the Next Gen made its debut, Hamlin had results of 8th and 13th. In 5 of the 6 races prior to that, Hamlin finished in the top 5
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500

Further Recommended Reading = Phoenix Finish Projections, DraftKings Phoenix Scoring Projections, FanDuel Phoenix Scoring Projections 

3) Christopher Bell
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Phoenix Outlook – Christopher Bell is an elite shorter-flat track performer who should be high on your radar at Phoenix. On this sub-track type since 2021 over his incident free races, Bell has a 5.8 average finish. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Bell had his fair share of problems, but his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranked as the 5th best. In practice, Chastain was a stopwatch standout, ranking 1st for 15,20,25 and 30-lap averages. On Sunday if he can avoid problems, look for Bell to be a top five contender.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – At Phoenix, Christopher Bell has been strong and in 4 of the last 6 races he’s finished between 6th to 10th. Over that stretch minus last fall and spring 2022, Bell has an 8.0 average finish. Last fall, Bell looked great, but he finished an asterisk mark 36th after having a brake failure. In the race, Bell started 13th, finished 9th in Stage #1, was up to 5th on lap 102 but then on lap 110 while running in 5th, Bell had his brake failure and slammed into the wall hard which marked the end of his race. Last spring, Bell finished 6th but take note he performed better than his result. In the race, Bell finished 3rd in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had a 4.8 average running position and was poised to likely finish in 3rd before late cautions broke out. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run, 4th for Green Flag Speed and 4th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Bell was 2 for 2 at being a top five contender but had asterisk mark results of 10th (fall) and 26th (spring).
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $11,500