COTA Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones has shown potential at COTA but after a troublesome 2023 on this track type where he ranked among the worst, he’ll be a risky dark horse for those looking to roll the dice. Last year at road courses, Jones had a 28.5 average finish, a 28.1 average running position, only cracked the top 20 once (16th at Chicago) and his Road Course Track Type Speed Ranking ranked 31st. I’ll note, Jones isn’t a bad road course racer by any means. In 2022 on this track type, Jones finished between 9th to 15th in 4 of the 6 races, so he’s capable. At COTA, I would view Jones as a 20’s performer who upside.
COTA Track History – Last year at COTA, Erik Jones had a mid-pack afternoon. In the race, Jones finished 23rd, had a 17.2 average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, on lap 57 before late chaos, Jones was running in 16th. “Performance Wise”, I would say Jones was really a mid to high-teens driver. In the two COTA races prior to that, Jones had a 12.5 average finish. In 2022, Jones finished 9th which is pretty remarkable when you look into his afternoon. In the race, Jones started in the rear of the field and even brought out a caution on lap 41 when the #43 came to a stop on the track. At the time of that issue, Jones was running in 11th. After that issue, Jones rallied hard to get his good finish. In 2021, Jones finished 16th and had a 20.3 average running position.

John Hunter Nemechek
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, it will be interesting to see how competitive the Legacy MC cars are. Erik Jones is a capable road course racer, but he ranked among the worst on this track type in 2023. This weekend in his first Cup start in the #42 on this track type, fading JHN doesn’t seem like a bad idea to me.
COTA Track History – Nemechek has never competed at COTA on the Cup level. Last year in the Xfinity series, Nemechek had problems and finished 27th.

Corey LaJoie
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Heading to COTA, I would view Corey LaJoie as about a 20th place performer with marginal upside and call it good. Last year at road courses over the combined races, LaJoie had an 18.5 average finish, a 23.7 average running position and his Road Course Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranked 26th.
COTA Track History – Last year at COTA, Corey LaJoie finished 11th but don’t read too much into that result. In the race, LaJoie had a 29.4 average running position, the 26th best Total Speed Ranking and was running way back in 34th on lap 57, but late chaos broke out. I’ll note, LaJoie’s race wasn’t incident free. LaJoie was penalized for short cutting the esses on lap 8 and then later black flagged around lap 24 for dragging his defuser. In 2022, LaJoie had engine problems late in the race (~lap 56) which led to his 35th. “Performance Wise”, LaJoie never ran well and was likely high-twenties good at best. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, LaJoie ranked 34th. In 2021 in the rain, LaJoie finished 20th and had an 18.3 average running position.

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