Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions + The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Richmond Fantasy Spin – At Richmond, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has high-teens potential. Stenhouse has finished in the teens in 6 of the last 10 races here, including a 17th last summer, so it’s achievable. At Phoenix which can be a good barometer, Stenhouse recently finished 21st.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, things haven’t been great for Stenhouse in recent races. Last summer, Stenhouse had his best result in a few years and finished 17th. Additionally, Stenhouse had a 15th place average running position and the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, the #47 showed speed but his afternoon also went downhill early which led to his 35th. On lap 21 while running in 6th, Stenhouse was running a higher groove than others and was said to have one of the fastest cars on the track. Then during the lap 30 competition caution, he was on pit road with his hood up and eventually got pushed behind the wall. I’m not quite certain what his exact issue was, but his competitive afternoon was then over. In 2022, Stenhouse had results of 22nd and 28th.

Erik Jones
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Erik Jones had some front-loaded success early in his career at Richmond but in recent races, he’s been super bad. Over the last eight Richmond races, Jones has a best finish of 19th and a 22.3 average finish, so make sure you keep expectations low. At Phoenix a few weeks back, Jones looked racy at times but ended up finishing a clunker 32nd. At Richmond, I would just view Jones as having a high-teens ceiling and not get any more optimistic than that.
Richmond Track History – Richmond has been quite brutal to Erik Jones in recent races and in the Next Gen, Jones has the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and minus summer 2022 where he crashed his average finish is 25.6. Last summer, Jones finished 23rd and had a 23.9 average running position. At no point did he show promise. Last spring, Jones was junk and finished 31st. In the race, Jones had a 29.8 average running position and then ranked 33rd for Green Flag Speed, Speed Late In A Run and Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2022, Jones finished a DNF 35th after crashing shortly after the restart in the final Stage. On lap 218 just prior to his demise, Jones was running in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 23rd. In spring 2022, Jones had a forgettable afternoon. In the race, Jones finished 23rd, had a 17.4 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three Richmond races prior to that, Jones had results of 21st, 19th and 22nd.

John H Nemechek
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Nemechek has been awesome at “The Action Track” in the Xfinity series but against Cup competition, I think he’s likely a high-teens to low-twenties driver, with little upside over that range. Phoenix can be a good barometer and in the desert a few weeks ago he finished 25th and had the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, John H Nemechek has one Cup start under his belt, and it wasn’t a pretty 30th back in 2020 when he drove the #38. Personally, I wouldn’t read into it and just view it as “Track time earned.” In the Xfinity series at Richmond, Nemechek’s last three results are 2nd, 2nd and 3rd.

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