Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Richmond and on Easter, there’s no question he’ll be a factor. At his “Home Track”, Hamlin’s a 4-time winner and in 13 of the last 16 races he’s finished in the top 6. At Richmond over the last six races minus last spring where he had one of the best cars but didn’t have an incident free race, Hamlin has a 2.2 average finish. Phoenix is a good barometer and a few weeks ago, there’s no question he was one of the drivers to beat but his race wasn’t incident free (Finished 11th, 4th best Total Speed Ranking). Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and over the last four races, Hamlin had a pair of runner-ups and a 4.75 average finish.
Richmond Track History – Denny Hamlin has thrived at Richmond, and he’s consistently performed at a super-elite level. In the Next Gen at Richmond, Hamlin has the best Next Gen Speed Ranking and minus last spring where his race was anything but incident free his average finish is 2.3. Last summer, Hamlin had a hot rod and ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 20 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Hamlin arguably had the best car but finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Hamlin was first caught speeding in Stage #1 during the competition caution while running in 10th. That didn’t really hold Hamlin back and he sliced and diced his way up thru the field and won Stage #2. Then in the final Stage, Hamlin had a slow pit stop while leading during a green flag pit cycle which dropped him from 1st to 12th on lap 296, and then during a late caution, Hamlin got his 2nd speeding penalty of the day which was a death blow in the results column. Despite that laundry list of problems, Hamlin led 71 laps, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2022, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 22 laps and then finished 4th. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2022, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, it was a “fresh tire at the end pit strategy victory.” In the race, Hamlin only led 5 laps, had an 8.2 average running position and because of his pit strategy, his speed analytics are completely skewed (14th best Total Speed Ranking). In 2021, Hamlin was the class of the field. He didn’t reach victory lane, but he went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd, leading 197 laps in one race and 207 in the other.

Martin Truex Jr.
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Richmond who’ll be a favorite. If it wasn’t for late cautions, there’s a good chance Truex would have back-to-back wins at Richmond in the spring. Over the last 10 Richmond races, Truex has 3-wins, a 4.2 average finish, a 6.1 average running position, the best Driver Rating and he’s averaged leading 79.9 laps per race. Phoenix is a good barometer for who might have success and a few weeks ago, Truex overcame inferior pit strategy to finish 7th. Over the last five races held at shorter-flat tracks going back to last year, Truex has a series best 5.2 average finish. On Sunday, look for Truex to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Richmond Track History – Martin Truex Jr. is one of the premiere performers at Richmond. Over the four races in the Next Gen, Truex has the 2nd best Driver Rating and a slightly misleading 7.3 average finish. Last summer, Truex had a solid showing. In the race, Truex finished 7th and had a 13.6 average running position. I’ll note, pit strategy really skewed him in many stats/analytics. On lap 385 before the final caution came out, Truex was poised to finish in 5th. Last spring, the #19 was stout and if a late caution didn’t come out which had Truex at a tire disadvantage, I think he likely would’ve won (He put on scuffs, everyone else had new tires) but instead he finished 11th. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #2, led 56 laps, had a 6.7 average running position and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Before the final green flag pit cycle started, Truex was the leader. In summer 2022, Truex had an off-race by his standards but was still solid. In the race, Truex finished 10th in Stage #1, about 14th in Stage #2, had a 10.1 average running position and then finished 7th. In spring 2022, I think Truex had the best car, but victory lane eluded him because of pit strategy from others. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 80 laps, had a race best 3.9 average running position, earned the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In the six Richmond races prior to that, Truex had results of 1st, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd.

Christopher Bell
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Christopher Bell is a shorter-flat track master who’ll be a factor at Richmond. At Phoenix a few weeks ago when the new rules package made its debut, Bell smoked the field en route to victory lane and was the class of the field. At Richmond, Bell flopped last summer but prior to that, he was money in the bank. At Richmond, look for Bell to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Richmond Track History – Christopher Bell has been a fantasy ace at Richmond. Bell just missed the setup or something in spectacular fashion last summer en route to a 20th but over the five races prior to that, Bell had a 3.8 average finish and was 5 for 5 at finishing between 2nd to 6th. Last summer, Bell started 29th, finished 20th and had a 22.1 average running position. I’ll note, on lap 133 while running in 18th, Bell got a speeding penalty, so his race wasn’t exactly incident free. Last spring, Bell was one of the best. In the race, Bell finished 8th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.2 average running position, led 26 laps and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Bell had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In summer 2022, Bell didn’t have an incident free race but that didn’t stop him from finishing runner-up. In the race, Bell started 21st, got a pit penalty during green flag pit stops around lap 180 and had to serve a pass thru (around the mid-teens at the time), spun on lap 251 after just getting back on the lead lap but then to close out the race, nobody was better than Bell. He then drove up thru the field and over the final 100 laps, the #20 was the fastest car on the track. I’ll note, fresher tires certainly helped him with that. In terms of speed late in a run, Bell ranked 5th. In spring 2022, Bell finished 7th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 63 laps, had a 5.5 average running position, and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. In 2021, Bell had results of 3rd and 4th.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier