Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Easter Night, NASCAR will be racing at Richmond for the Toyota Owners 400. Richmond is a high tire-wear .75-mile oval that I classify as a Shorter-Flat Track.” Phoenix is a fellow shorter-flat track that was visited earlier this year where the new 2024 short track rules package made its debut, so make sure you definitely look back to that race.

On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Richmond Practice Notes, Richmond 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Richmond Practice Speeds and 10 Lap Averages.

NEW for 2024, Check out our Richmond Quick Rankings if you’re in a rush!

Here’s the Richmond Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Richmond Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – On Sunday night under the lights, Martin Truex Jr. will be tough to beat. Truex has owned the night at the “Action Track”, being the most recent night race winner (2021) and in 3 of the last 4 Richmond night races, he’s raced his way to victory lane, with his non-win being a 2nd. If it wasn’t for late cautions, there’s a good chance Truex would currently have back-to-back wins at Richmond in the spring. Phoenix is a good barometer for who might have success and a few weeks ago, Truex overcame inferior pit strategy to finish 7th. Over the last five races held at shorter-flat tracks going back to last year, Truex has a series best 5.2 average finish.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has thrived at Richmond and over the last 10 races, Truex has 3-wins, a 4.2 average finish, the best Driver Rating and he’s averaged leading 79.9 laps per race. Over the four races in the Next Gen, Truex has the 2nd best Driver Rating and a slightly misleading 7.3 average finish. Last summer, Truex had a solid showing and finished 7th. In the race, Truex was out of sync with the field for much of the race via pit strategy and before the late caution came out, he was poised to finish in 5th. Last spring, the #19 was stout and if a late caution didn’t come out which had Truex at a tire disadvantage, I think he likely would’ve won (He put on scuffs, everyone else had new tires) but instead he finished 11th. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #2, led 56 laps, had a 6.7 average running position and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Before the final green flag pit cycle started, Truex was the leader. In summer 2022, Truex finished 7th in the summer and then in the spring, I think Truex had the best car, but victory lane eluded him because of pit strategy from others. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 80 laps, had a race best 3.9 average running position, earned the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In the six Richmond races prior to that, Truex had results of 1st, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,000

Further Recommended Reading = Richmond Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Richmond Scoring Projections, FanDuel Richmond Scoring Projections 

2) Denny Hamlin
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Richmond is Denny Hamlin’s home track and on Sunday night, pencil him in as a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. At “The Action Track”, Hamlin’s a 4-time winner and in 13 of the last 16 races he’s finished in the top 6. At Richmond over the last six races minus last spring where he had one of the best cars but didn’t have an incident free race, Hamlin has a 2.2 average finish. Phoenix has correlation and a few weeks ago in the desert, Hamlin might’ve just raced his way to victory lane if he didn’t spin out while battling for the lead which flipped the field, leading to his 11th (4th best Total Speed Ranking). Since 2023 at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking in the series.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Richmond and in the Next Gen, Hamlin has the best Next Gen Speed Ranking and minus last spring where his race was anything but incident free his average finish is 2.3. Last summer, the #11 was stout and Hamlin ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 20 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Hamlin might’ve actually had the best car but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Hamlin was first caught speeding in Stage #1 during the competition caution while running in 10th. Despite that, Hamlin raced his way up thru the field and won Stage #2. Then in the final Stage, Hamlin had a slow pit stop while leading during a green flag pit cycle which dropped him from 1st to 12th on lap 296, and then during a late caution, Hamlin got his 2nd speeding penalty of the day. Despite that laundry list of problems, Hamlin led 71 laps, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2022, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 22 laps and then finished 4th. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2022, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, it was a “fresh tire at the end pit strategy victory.” In the race, Hamlin only led 5 laps, had an 8.2 average running position and because of his pit strategy, his speed analytics are completely skewed (14th best Total Speed Ranking). In 2021, Hamlin was the class of the field. He didn’t reach victory lane, but he went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd, leading 197 laps in one race and 207 in the other.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $14,000

3) William Byron
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Fresh off win #2 in 2024, I wouldn’t be surprised if Byron notches #3 at Richmond. Byron had a pair of clunker results in the 20’s last year but make no mistake, Byron’s been one of the better performers here over the last few races and probably could’ve potentially won the last two spring races. In the Next Gen at Richmond, Byron has the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the 4th best Driver Rating and in 2 of the 4 races, he’s led +117 laps or more. Since 2023 at shorter-flat tracks, Byron has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Phoenix is a good barometer and a few weeks ago in the desert, Byron was a top five contender but came home with a misleading result after the field got flipped late. Following practice, Byron said his car was “Awesome”, so the competition might just be in big trouble this weekend.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Last year at Richmond, Byron had a pair of results in the 20’s but don’t overlook him. Last summer, Byron finished 21st and sadly, that’s pretty legit since he wasn’t good. In the race, Byron had a 16.5 average running position and his Speed Ranking ranked 14th. Last spring, the #24 was fast but Byron finished a misleading 24th. In the race, Byron won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.4 average running position and led a race high 117 laps. On lap 370, Byron was the leader but then during a caution shortly after that he left pit road in 4th and was then promptly caught up in a restart wreck which led to his misleading 24th. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking and the best Green Flag Speed. In 2022, Byron finished a solid 11th in the summer and then in the spring he was a standout, leading 122 laps, having a 6.8 average running position and finishing 3rd, only being beaten by others with superior tire strategy at the end.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,000