Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, temper expectations if you pick Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse finished 8th last spring but overall, in 4 of the last 5 at “The Paper Clip”, he’s finished 19th or worse, and to find his next finish better than 15th you have to go back to 2017! In 7 of the last 9 here, Stenhouse has finished between 15th to 22nd. Heading into the weekend, I would pencil Stenhouse in as a high-teens to low-twenties driver.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville, things haven’t been great for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as you read above. Last fall, Stenhouse finished 19th and that result does a pretty good job reflecting his performance considering his average running position was 20.9. Last spring, Stenhouse finished 8th which marks his best result here ever, but I wouldn’t say he was as good as his finish. In the race, Stenhouse had a 16.7 average running position, the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and was in 16th on lap 282 which is a great reference point before wild things started to happen in the last 100 laps. I’ll note, a caution on lap 342 was very beneficial for him and had him propelled up to 4th on lap 350. Over the six Martinsville races prior to that, Stenhouse had a 20.6 average finish and a 21.6 average running position. In 2022, Stenhouse had finishes of 23rd and 27th.

Austin Dillon
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – If you’re looking to roll the dice on Austin Dillon early in the season, don’t overlook him at Martinsville. Dillon’s been pretty solid and since 2021 minus a crash in fall 2022, Dillon has a 13.0 average finish, and that’s basically as good as it gets with him. I’ll note, Dillon didn’t run well last fall (23rd). That said to play it safe, I would view Dillon as a high-teens to low-twenties driver who might still burn you.
Martinsville Track History – Austin Dillon has been solid at Martinsville and in 4 of the last 6 races, Dillon’s finished in the top 14. Fantasy Racing is largely about what have you done lately, and unfortunately, he was a dud last fall en route to a 23rd. Additionally, Dillon had a 23.1 average running position and ranked 27th for Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Dillon finished 12th, had a 19.2 average running position and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Dillon was at his best at the end to close out the race so I would say his finish is legit. In fall 2022, Dillon didn’t run well but he wasn’t 33rd place bad. That asterisk mark result can be attributed to when he blew out a brake rotor and crashed into the wall hard. At the time of his demise, Dillon was in 19th, two laps down. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 17th. In spring 2022, Dillon had a hot rod and really liked his car. In the race, Dillon started 23rd, but he had no trouble driving up thru the pack. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #2, had an 8.4 average running position and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Dillon was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Dillon had solid finishes of 13th and 14th.

Austin Cindric
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Austin Cindric had a solid showing last fall at Martinsville and finished 9th, but do you think he can repeat the feat? Cindric’s hard to trust overall and over his four starts he’s been 50% good finish (top 11) and 50% bad finish (27th or worse), so you really can’t trust him to begin with. On Sunday, I would prepare for the worst and just view Cindric as about a 20th place driver, which is right down the middle.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville as you just read, Austin Cindric has finished in the top 11 50% of the time but in the other 50% he’s finished 27th or worse. Last fall, I don’t know how he did it but Cindric was solid. In the race, Cindric started 21st, had a 14.3 average running position, had the 11th best Speed Ranking and then finished 9th. In spring 2023, Cindric was junk and finished 33rd. In the race, Cindric had a 32.9 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Cindric finished 26th in the fall and then 11th in the spring (9.9 average running position, 12th best Total Speed Ranking).

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier