Texas Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, I think Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is likely a high-teens to low 20’s driver. Stenhouse snuck in a 9th last fall, but Texas really hasn’t been that great a track for him recently in terms of the results column. At Las Vegas, the only 1.5-mile track visited earlier this year, Stenhouse finished 17th. Last year at high-speed 1.5’s, Stenhouse ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Texas Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been respectable in the “Lone Star State.” He’s had extremely bad results in 4 of the last 6 races, but when you go back to 2016, then in 8 of the last 13 races he’s finished between 9th to 16th. Last fall, Stenhouse had his best Texas race ever which also was his first Texas top ten. In the race, Stenhouse finished 9th but take note of his 22.5 average running position and 27th best Total Speed Ranking. With 50 to go, Stenhouse was in 21st but all the late mayhem moved him forward. In 2022, Stenhouse looked pretty good, but he also crashed late which led to his 27th. In the race, Stenhouse led 23 laps and was running in 3rd when he crashed on lap 298. Also, earlier in the race he had a harmless spin. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Stenhouse ranked 24th. In 2021, Stenhouse crashed in the lap 30 “Big One” which led to his 34th, so there’s no takeaways. In fall 2020, Stenhouse was solid. In the race he finished 9th in Stage #2, 12th overall and got faster as the race progressed. In summer 2020, Stenhouse ran well, but crashed early in the final Stage. Just prior to his demise he was in 14th.

Ryan Preece
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, I would view Ryan Preece as about a low 20’s performer with very little upside. Preece finished 23rd at Texas last year and also finished 23rd at Las Vegas this year, so it seems to be a trend. Last year at high-speed 1.5’s over the combined races minus Charlotte where the attrition rate was sky high, Preece finished 18th or worse every race and had a 23.4 average finish.
Texas Track History – Last year at Texas in the #41, Ryan Preece finished 23rd, had an 18.5 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Preece nearly snuck in a top ten at the end via late pit strategy, but he blew it when he got really out of line while running in 5th around lap 255 which quickly dropped him back to the teens. Realistically before a lot of late mayhem ensued, Preece looked about 20th place good. In 2021 when he next most recently raced here, Preece crashed and finished 36th. In 2020, Preece finished 18th in the fall and then crashed in the summer (40th). In 2019, Preece’s finishes were 22nd and 23rd.

Josh Berry
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, I would use the K.I.S.S principle for Josh Berry and look for him to likely finish around 20th. At Las Vegas this spring, Berry finished 20th, had a 22.6 average running position and ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Texas Track History – Josh Berry has never made a Cup start at Texas. In the Xfinity series in the “Lone Star State”, Berry had problems and finished 27th last year but in the two races prior to that he had finishes of 6th and 7th.

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