Texas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat and the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Texas has been a standout venue for Larson in the #5 with him winning in 2021, and last fall if late cautions didn’t break out, he likely would’ve won his 2nd race in the “Lone Star State.” Las Vegas is a good barometer for who might have success and this spring at “Sin City”, Larson raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion, having the best Total Speed Ranking and leading 181 laps. Last year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, the #5 had standout speed with Larson having the best Total Speed Ranking over the combined races. Also, on this sub-track type last year minus Charlotte and Texas, Larson had a 2.3 average finish. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Kyle Larson is a recent Texas winner and “Performance Wise”, he should’ve won 2 of the 3 races including last year. Last fall, Larson had a great car but late mayhem essentially robbed him of what looked like certain victory. In the race, Larson started 11th, won Stage #2, led 99 laps, had a 6.6 average running position (impressive with his early demise), had the best Total Speed Ranking but late cautions led to his ultimate demise and on lap 247 while battling side by side for the lead during a restart with Bubba Wallace, he crashed (finished 31st). In 2022, Larson started 9th, won Stage #1, led 19 laps, had a 10.4 average running position and finished 9th. In 2021, Larson had the field covered and put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1 (others beat him on pit strategy), won Stage #2, had a 2.1 average running position, led 256 laps and earned a rare perfect driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race.

Tyler Reddick
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, Tyler Reddick the 2022 winner will be tough to beat. Las Vegas is a great barometer for who might have success and this spring at “Sin City”, Reddick had a stellar showing in the new Toyota XSE and if he didn’t have to drive up thru the field twice, there’s a great chance he could’ve potentially won. At Las Vegas, Reddick finished 2nd, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking but take note in both the 3rd and 4th segments, the #45 was the fastest car on the track. On Sunday, look for Reddick to be a top five contender who might just be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Tyler Reddick has been a solid performer at Texas and in the Next Gen his Speed Ranking ranks 6th. Last year’s race was far from incident free for Reddick but over his three races prior to that, Reddick had a 7.3 average finish, highlighted by a 2022 win. Last fall, Reddick looked like a mid-teens performer but finished an asterisk mark 25th. On lap 200, Reddick was in 16th but then three laps later during a green flag pit cycle he pitted early and was then burned by a caution which dropped him off the lead lap back into the 30’s. I’ll note, Reddick did rebound and was up to 9th on lap 254, but then on lap 255 he was collected in a “Big One” which doomed him to his poor result. In the race, Reddick had the 10th best Green Flag Speed, the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14.3 average running position. In 2022 en route to victory lane, Reddick led the most laps (70), had the best driver rating, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and the 4th best Green Flag Speed. Reddick didn’t place in any Stage but when it was closing time, Reddick had control of the race. In the two races prior to that, Reddick had results of 9th and 12th.

Denny Hamlin
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat. Hamlin’s a 3-time winner and in recent races in the “Lone Star State”, he’s consistently been a factor. Last year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and minus Charlotte his average finish was 5.8. This spring at Las Vegas in the new Camry XSE, Hamlin started way back in 28th but raced his way to an 8th place finish.
Texas Track History –Denny Hamlin is a three-time Texas winner and in the Next Gen, Hamlin has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and a 7.5 average finish. Last fall, Hamlin had a great car and finished 5th, despite Ty Gibbs running into him on pit road which did some damage to the #11. I’ll also note that finish underrates him and before late mass mayhem kicked into gear, Hamlin looked poised to finish in 3rd. In the race, Hamlin was fast and ranked #2 in terms of Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Hamlin had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 10th. Around lap 268 under caution while running in 2nd, William Byron spun him, and it dropped Hamlin all the way back to 22nd. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run, 7th for Green Flag Speed and 8th for Total Speed Rankings.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Texas Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier