Texas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, get ready for a showdown at Texas. Texas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track and in recent races, it’s become one of the most wild tracks on the circuit, so buckle up. Texas is no longer in the Playoffs, but I don’t think drivers will dial down the intensity.

Texas will be the second high-speed 1.5-mile track visited in 2024, so make sure you look back to Las Vegas. Here’s a look at Total Speed Rankings at High-Speed 1.5-Mile Tracks since 2023.

On Saturday, practice was held for Texas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Texas Practice Notes and Texas 10,15,20 and 25 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the Texas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Check out our NEW for 2024 member exclusive “Quick Rankings” if you’re in a rush! It’s the same as Confidence Rankings but just in numerical order.

Texas Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Texas Outlook – Polesitter, Kyle Larson is the premiere performer at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks and at Texas, the #5 will be fast and the road to victory lane goes thru him. Larson had the Texas race all but won last fall, he put on a display of domination here in 2021 from the pole en route to victory lane, he steam rolled the competition this spring at Las Vegas and he’s been the best on this sub-track type since 2023. Las Vegas has correlation and this spring at “Sin City”, Larson raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion, having a 1.7 average running position, leading 181 laps, earning a near perfect driver rating and having the best Total Speed Ranking. Since 2023 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has the best Total Speed Ranking and minus Charlotte and Texas, his average finish is 2.0. In practice, the #5 was a rocket and Larson had the best 15-lap average.
Texas Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a recent Texas winner but “Performance Wise”, Larson should’ve won 2 of the last 3. Last year, Larson put on a display of domination, but late mayhem robbed him of what looked like certain victory. In the race, Larson won Stage #2, led 99 laps, had a 6.6 average running position (impressive with his early demise), had the best Total Speed Ranking but late cautions led to the circumstance of him wrecking on lap 247 while battling side by side for the lead during a restart with Bubba Wallace (finished 31st). In 2022, Larson was solid but not spectacular. In that race, Larson won Stage #1, led 19 laps, had a 10.4 average running position and finished 9th. In 2021, Larson was the class of the field en route to victory lane. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1 (others beat him on pit strategy), won Stage #2, had a 2.1 average running position, led 256 laps and earned a rare perfect driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Texas Finish Projections, DraftKings Texas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Texas Scoring Projections 

2) Tyler Reddick
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Texas Outlook – At Texas, Tyler Reddick the 2022 winner will be tough to beat. Las Vegas has correlation and this spring at “Sin City”, Reddick was a standout performer and if he didn’t have to drive up thru the field twice, I wouldn’t argue with anyone who said he would’ve won. At Vegas, Reddick finished 2nd, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking but take note in both the 3rd and 4th segments, the #45 was the fastest car on the track. Since 2023 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Reddick was a speed standout, having the 2nd best 15-lap average and the best 20-lap average.
Texas Track Record Breakdown – At Texas, Tyler Reddick the 2022 winner has been solid and in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Reddick ranks 6th. Last year, Reddick’s race wasn’t incident free but over the three races prior to that his average finish was 7.3. Last fall, Reddick looked like a mid-teens performer but finished an asterisk mark 25th. On lap 200, Reddick was in 16th but then three laps later during a green flag pit cycle he pitted early and was then burned by a caution which dropped him off the lead lap back into the 30’s. I’ll note, Reddick did rebound and was up to 9th on lap 254, but then on lap 255 he was collected in a “Big One” which doomed him to his poor result. In the race, Reddick had the 10th best Green Flag Speed, the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14.3 average running position. In 2022 en route to victory lane, Reddick led the most laps (70), had the best driver rating, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and the 4th best Green Flag Speed. In the two races prior to that, Reddick had results of 9th and 12th.
DraftKings $10,000/ FanDuel $13,500

3) William Byron
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Texas Outlook – At Texas, William Byron is the defending champ and on Sunday, he might just break out the “Big Hat” for a 4th time this season. Byron’s been one of the best in the “Lone Star State” and in terms of high-speed 1.5-mile track prowess, he’s more than proven to be a super-elite performer and over the last seven races on this sub-track type, Byron has 2-wins, a series best 5.6 average finish and his Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 3rd best. This spring at Las Vegas, Byron rallied to finish 10th despite having to overcome an unexpected pit stop due to a trash bag on his grille. In practice, Byron had the 4th best 15-lap average.
Texas Track Record Breakdown – At Texas, William Byron has been elite and over the last three races, Byron has the best average finish (3.3), the 2nd best average running position (6.4) and the 2nd best driver rating. Last fall, Byron didn’t have the best car but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. With 50 laps to go before late wildness ensued, Byron was running in 7th. Late chaos bumped Byron up towards the front and then in the closing laps he came up clutch and passed Bubba Wallace for the win. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked as the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 7th best. In 2022, Byron finished 6th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 42 laps, had a race best 6.7 average running position and then finished 7th. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Byron finished runner-up.
DraftKings $10,800/ FanDuel $12,500