Dover Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is one of the premiere performers at Dover and on Sunday, there’s no question the #5 will be tough to beat. The last two Dover races haven’t been incident free for him but last year, the #5 was a rocket and might just have been the best. In the three Dover races prior to the last two, Larson had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson is an elite performer at “The Monster Mile” and it ranks as one of his best tracks. Larson raced his way to victory lane here in fall 2019 and since 2019 minus last year his average finish is 3rd. Last year, Larson might’ve just been the best but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Larson started 18th but had no trouble slicing and dicing his way up thru the running order. On lap 81 when he climbed up to 5th, Ross Chastain decided to wreck the #15 and Larson was caught up in the carnage and got heavy damage which doomed his afternoon. If his race would’ve been incident free, I have no doubt he was going to be tough to beat. In 2022, Larson didn’t have an incident free race but he rallied to finish 6th. In the race, Larson started 3rd, led 19 laps, finished 6th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 156 while running in 7th, Larson spun (got slightly into the wall) and had a shredded tire. That damaged the #5 and dropped him off the lead lap, but he rallied back. When Stage #2 ended, Larson finished 16th. Then over the last Stage, Larson rallied back to finish 6th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 8th. In 2021, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson led 154 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2019 he finished 3rd.

Martin Truex Jr.
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Dover who’ll likely be the driver to beat. Truex is a 4-time winner and in 5 of the last 7 races, he’s finished in the top 2. You can’t argue with that level of consistency. Over the last 13 races since 2016, Truex has 9 top four’s and 10 top tens. On Sunday, look for Truex to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Dover is one of Martin Truex Jr.’s many home tracks and he’s thrived at “The Monster Mile.” Since 2019 minus misleading results in 2022 and 2021, he’s finished in the top 2 every race and has a 1.6 average finish. Last year, Truex was the class of the field and dominated late. In the race, Truex started 17th, finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 68 laps and overcame a late restart where others used pit strategy to race his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Truex had the fastest car late in a run, had the fastest 4th Segment Speed and his overall Total Speed Ranking ranked 3rd. In 2022, Truex was stout but crashed on the last lap while battling Chastain for 3rd which led to his 12th. In the race, Truex finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 and had a 6.3 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Truex was the fastest driver late in a run and ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Truex started on the pole, led 16 laps but then after that his race went downhill. During the lap 35 competition caution while he was in 4th, Truex had a slow pit stop and it dropped him back to 12th. Then at some point after that, Truex damaged his nose and during the Stage #1 caution his team did a long pit stop to repair it. When the checkered flag waved, Truex finished 19th. In 2020 during the doubles, Truex went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd. In 2019, Truex had results of 1st and 2nd.

Ross Chastain
Dover Fantasy Outlook – At Dover, look for Ross Chastain to attack the track and be tough to beat. In the Next Gen at this concrete beast, Chastain has the best average finish (2.5), the best Driver Rating, the best average running position (4.1) and his Total Speed Ranking is the best. Last summer at Nashville which is a fellow concrete track, Chastain raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion. I don’t view the tracks as having correlation, but the unique surface is the same. On Sunday, look for Chastain to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – At Dover in the Next Gen, Ross Chastain has been a standout performer and he’s done everything but win. As you read above, Chastain ranks #1 in the Next Gen in many key analytics. Last year, Chastain was stout. In the race, Chastain started 14th, finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 98 laps, had a 3.4 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd. In terms of speed stats, Chastain ranked 2nd across the board for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed, Speed Late In A Run and 4th Segment Speed. In 2022, Chastain had a hot rod. In the race he started 7th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, had a 4.7 average running position, led the 2nd most laps (86), earned the 2nd best driver rating and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of speed stats, Chastain had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 5th for speed late in a run.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Dover Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier