Dover Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Dover for the Würth 400! The “Monster Mile” is a unique 1.0-mile concrete oval that is physically demanding, and drivers have to get up on the wheel. The only chance drivers will be able to take a breather, is under caution, and they better hope it’s not them because Dover has “Big One” potential.
On Saturday, practice was held for Dover. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, maybe some want to qualify near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Dover Practice Notes, Dover 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Dover Practice Speeds/ 10 Lap Averages.
Here’s Dover Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Dover Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 15th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Dover Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Dover and on Sunday, the road to victory lane might very well go thru the defending champ. At “The Monster Mile”, Truex is a 4-time winner and in 5 of the last 7 races, he’s finished in the top 2. Over the last 13 races, Truex has 9 top four’s and 10 top tens. On Sunday, look for Truex to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track Record Breakdown – Dover is one of Martin Truex Jr.’s many home tracks and he’s thrived at “The Monster Mile.” Since 2019 minus misleading results in 2022 and 2021, Truex has finished in the top 2 every race and has a 1.6 average finish. Last year, Truex was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Truex started 17th, finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 68 laps and overcame a late restart where others used pit strategy to race his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Truex had the fastest car late in a run, had the fastest 4th Segment Speed and his overall Total Speed Ranking ranked 3rd. In 2022, Truex was stout but crashed on the last lap while battling Chastain for 3rd which led to his 12th. In the race, Truex finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 and had a 6.3 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Truex was the fastest driver late in a run and ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Truex finished 19th but you can completely disregard that result since his race wasn’t incident free (slow pit stop, damaged his nose in traffic). In 2020 during the doubles, Truex went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd. In 2019, Truex had finishes of 1st and 2nd.
DraftKings $11,300/ FanDuel $13,500
Further Recommended Reading = Dover Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Dover Projections, FanDuel Dover Projections
2) Kyle Larson
Start 21st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Dover Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Dover, and on Sunday, he’ll be tough to beat in a fast #5. The last two Dover races haven’t been incident free for Larson but he had a rocket that might’ve just been the best last year and then in 2022, he overcame a spin/shredded tire to finish 6th. In the three Dover races prior to those, Larson had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. This year at the two intermediate tracks visited, Larson smoked the field at Las Vegas and was clobbering them at Texas until he lost a wheel while leading.
Dover Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson has thrived at Dover and ranks among the premiere performers. Larson raced his way to victory lane in fall 2019 and since 2019 minus last year his average finish is 3rd. Last year, Larson had a rocket and was likely going to contend for the win, but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Larson started 18th but had no trouble slicing and dicing his way up thru the running order. On lap 81 when he climbed up to 5th, Ross Chastain decided to wreck the #15 and Larson then nailed the lap down car. In 2022, Larson didn’t have an incident free race, but rallied to finish 6th. In the race, Larson started 3rd, led 19 laps, finished 6th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 156 while running in 7th, Larson spun (got slightly into the wall) and had a shredded tire. That damaged the #5 and dropped him off the lead lap, but he rallied back. When Stage #2 ended, Larson finished 16th. Then over the last Stage, Larson drove hard to finish 6th. In 2021, Larson was impressive but finished runner-up. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson led 154 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2019, Larson finished 3rd.
DraftKings $11,500/ FanDuel $14,000
3) William Byron
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Dover Outlook – At Dover, look for William Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Byron was a standout performer last year and in 3 of the last 4 Dover races he’s finished 4th. With how strong the #24 has been in 2024, look for the good times to continue. In practice, Byron had the best 10 and 15 lap averages and also said his car feels good.
Dover Track Record Breakdown – William Byron has been strong at Dover. Byron was a standout performer last year and in 3 of the last 4 races, he’s finished 4th. Last year, Byron had his best Dover performance. In the race, Byron started 8th, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led the most laps (193), had the best average running position (3.3), had the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 4th. To close out the race, Byron fell off and wasn’t at his best at the end. Byron’s Total Speed Ranking ranked 5th but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 4th and then 13th. In 2022, Byron finished 22nd. “Performance Wise”, I think Byron was mid-teens good but a late caution during the pit cycle dropped him from 16th on lap 320, to off the lead lap to 25th on lap 331. In the race, Byron had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked 16th for speed late in a run and had a 15.4 average running position. In 2021, Byron finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 4.2 average running position, led 21 laps and then finished 4th. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and the 4th best Green Flag Speed. In 2020 #2, Byron also finished 4th.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $12,500
