Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin has been a super-elite performer at Kansas and on Sunday, look for the defending spring winner to finish in the top five and compete for the win. If there wasn’t a late caution last fall, Hamlin all but likely would’ve had a 2023 Kansas season sweep. Since 2023 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin has the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking with his average finish minus Charlotte 2023 and Texas 2024 being 6.2. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Hamlin has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, having finished 8th at Las Vegas and being the likely winner at Texas before late chaos broke out (finished 30th).
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner and in the Next Gen, Hamlin has 1-win, a 2.3 average finish, the best Driver Rating and the best Next Gen Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, nobody was better than Hamlin and if there wasn’t a late caution last fall, he would’ve had a season sweep. Last fall, Hamlin started 14th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 63 laps and had a 2.22 second lead just before the late caution came out with about 8 to go. That led to Hamlin restarting in 6th during the final restart and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed, Speed Late In A Run and 4th Segment Speed. Last spring, the #11 was stout and Hamlin raced his way to victory lane after sending Larson into the wall on the last lap. In the race, Hamlin earned the best driver rating, had a race best 3.6 average running position and led 34 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 across the board in terms of Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In fall 2022, Hamlin didn’t have an incident free race (equipment interference penalty during the Stage caution) but finished runner-up. In the race, Hamlin’s strength was being fast late in a run, and in that speed analytic he ranked #1. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 8th but take note in the final segment when the trophy was on the line, the #11 was the fastest car on the track. In spring 2022, Hamlin was one of the best despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, got an equipment interference penalty around lap 35, finished 8th in Stage #2 and then rallied to finish 4th when the checkered flag waved.

Kyle Larson
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Kansas and on Sunday, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Larson had this race all but won last spring, he was stellar last fall and the #5 is always fast at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks. Since 2023 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has the best Total Speed Ranking and minus misleading results at Charlotte 2023 and Texas (2023 and 2024), Larson has 2-wins and a 2.0 average finish! This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson put on a display of domination en route to victory lane at Las Vegas and was the class of the field at Texas before he lost a wheel.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level and over the last five races, Larson has the 2nd best average finish (3.4), the best average running position (6.3) and the best driver rating. Last fall, Larson had a hot rod and finished 4th but I would make a case he was better than his finish. Around the midpoint while he was in 2nd and on old tires, Larson had a bad restart which dropped him back to about 20th. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, led the most laps (99) and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking (speed by segments of 1st, 1st, 13th and then 4th). Last spring, Larson had the race all but won until Denny Hamlin dumped him on the last lap while leading. In the race, Larson finished 10th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, led 85 laps, ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and then 3rd for both Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. Over the final quarter of the race, the #5 was the fastest car on the track. In fall 2022, Larson finished 8th, had an 8.9 average running position and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Larson finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6.3 average running position and led 29 laps. In fall 2021, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane, having led 130 laps.

Tyler Reddick
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, look for last fall’s winner, Tyler Reddick to be fast and be a contender. Reddick didn’t have the best car last fall but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, I would argue Reddick’s been the 2nd best (Larson #1 for me) and over the combined races, Reddick has the best Total Speed Ranking, the best average finish (3.0), the best average running position (6.1) and the 2nd best Driver Rating.
Kansas Track History – Tyler Reddick has been fast at Kansas, but the results column isn’t too pretty with him finishing 22nd or worse in 3 of the last 5. Last fall, Reddick had a hot rod and raced his way to victory lane taking advantage of a late restart. In the race, Reddick finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.0 average running position and led a grand total of 2-laps, which were the last two. I’ll note, before the late caution came out, Reddick was running in 2nd, 2.22 seconds behind Denny Hamlin. Last spring, Reddick was strong and finished 9th. Additionally, Reddick led 23 laps, had an 8.3 average running position and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Reddick was strong in both races and showed top 5 potential but was 2 for 2 at finishing in the 30’s. In fall 2022, Reddick started on the pole, led 38 laps, but then on lap 65 while leading, Reddick got into the wall hard, and his race was then over which led to his 35th. In spring 2022, Reddick was a top five contender but finished a misleading 30th. In the race, Reddick led 24 laps, finished 4th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 113 while he was running in 4th, he had debris on his grill and then slammed into the wall. A few laps later, he slammed into it again which led to an unexpected pit stop which ruined his afternoon.

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