Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Josh Berry
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, look for Josh Berry to be a 20’s driver who’ll have teens upside. Berry had a dud performance last spring in the #48, so I think it’s hard to see him being a lot more competitive in the #4. That said, Berry has been solid at Bristol (12th) and Richmond (11th) this year which were two high-tire wear tracks visited in 2024, and that skill will be important on Sunday. Heading into the weekend, Berry has three straight finishes between 14th to 16th.
Darlington Track History – Last spring at Darlington in his only Cup start at this egg-shapped oval, Josh Berry had an ugly afternoon, finishing 30th and having the 30th best Total Speed Ranking. Berry never ran well and I’m pretty certain he was also damaged in one of the late accidents.

John H Nemechek
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, pencil in John H Nemechek as a low to mid 20’s performer if he can avoid trouble. That finish range is the typical weekly level of performance from the #42 crew, so let’s hope they can live up to it and avoid trouble.
Darlington Track History – Back in 2020 when he last competed on the Cup level at Darlington, Nemechek had results of 36th, 35th and then 9th over the trio of races. Last year in the Xfinity series, Nemechek started on the pole both races and had results of 3rd and 5th.

Todd Gilliland
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, Todd Gilliland has two top 15’s in the spring and two results of 26th or worse in the fall on his resume. This is a spring race obviously, but he was reliant on super mayhem to notch those good results. On Sunday, I would pencil him in for a 20’s and then root for attrition if you’re planning on picking him.
Darlington Track History – As you read above, Todd Gilliland has been good in the spring and a dud in the fall when it comes to the results column. Last fall, Gilliland didn’t run well. In the race, Gilliland finished 26th, had a 27.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 34th. I’ll note, Gilliland was involved in a late accident, but he was only in the low 20’s at that time so I can’t say it hurt him too much. Last spring, Gilliland finished 11th. Keep in mind, the attrition rate was high, and that result doesn’t match his performance. In the race, Gilliland had a 20.0 average running position and the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. On lap 266 before late mayhem kicked into gear, Gilliland was in 18th. In fall 2022, Gilliland finished 28th, and that does a good job representing his level of performance. In spring 2022 in his Darlington Cup debut, Gilliland finished 15th, but I wouldn’t read into that result. Gilliland was without question a beneficiary of the attrition rate being high. In the race, Gilliland had a 25.3 average running position, and his Total Speed Ranking was the 31st best.

Harrison Burton
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – This might shock you, but Harrison Burton actually hasn’t been bad at Darlington and in 3 of his 4 races he’s flirted with a top 15 finish. That said, can you trust him? I wouldn’t but I think he’s a low-tier driver who should be viewed as having upside for those looking to roll the dice. In 2024 minus Atlanta and Talladega his average finish is 29.8.
Darlington Track History – Harrison Burton hasn’t been bad at Darlington, which is shocking of all places. At “The Track Too Tough To Tame” minus last fall where he looked low-teens good but crashed late his average finish is 13.7. Last fall, Harrison Burton looked poised to come home with a respectable result, but he crashed late. With 50 to go he was running in 13th but then the next lap he crashed which led to his 35th. It was a legit solid showing for Burton and he ran well throughout the final Stage until his demise. Last spring, Burton finished 6th but that’s a fool’s gold result. “Performance Wise”, I would say Burton was realistically a mid-teens driver. In the race, Burton had a 13.1 average running position, ranked 13th for speed late in a run and then 15th for Total Speed Rankings. On lap 278 before late mayhem kicked into gear, Burton was running in 16th. In 2022, Burton had results of 21st and 14th.

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