Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin is always tough to beat at Darlington and on Sunday, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. At “The Lady In Black”, Hamlin’s a 4-time winner who’s finished in the top five 52% of the time and in the top ten 69% of the time. If last fall’s race would’ve been incident free, I think Hamlin was likely poised to get win #5. When it comes to tire management skills, I would argue that Hamlin is the best in the business and in 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Hamlin had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’s arguably the best. Hamlin’s had asterisk mark results in 3 of the 4 Next Gen races, but don’t let that scare you away because he hasn’t lacked when it comes to “Performance.” Last fall, the #11 was the class of the field but Hamlin finished an asterisk mark 25th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 177 laps but in the last Stage while leading (just before the pit cycle) around lap 273, Hamlin had a loose wheel and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap back to 30th. Later, Hamlin was also involved in an accident on lap 331, but he was way back in the mid 20’s at that time anyways. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Hamlin finished 12th but personally, I wouldn’t read into his afternoon too much. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 he radioed his team that his car took off on him and he got into the wall. After that, Hamlin was just never a factor, and that 12th can be chalked up to attrition. In fall 2022, the #11 was fast but Hamlin came up just short at the end. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 2nd, had a 5.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 6 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 4th for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2022, Hamlin was one of the best, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free and he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps but then in the final Stage his afternoon went south. Hamlin’s pit strategy had him shuffled back to 9th on lap 248 (stayed out on older tires longer than others) and then shortly after that a caution came out and he had a slow stop that dropped him back to 18th. Right after that, Hamlin was caught up in the “Big One” following a restart. In 2021, Hamlin led 146 laps and raced his way to victory lane in the fall and then finished 5th in the spring.

Kyle Larson
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Larson smoked the field last fall when it was closing time and he might’ve just been the best last spring too. Over Larson’s last five incident free races at Darlington, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top 3. In 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking for the season.
Darlington Track History – At Darlington, Kyle Larson ranks as one of the premiere performers and in 2023, he could’ve easily pulled out the broom and had a season sweep if the spring race would’ve been incident free for him. Last fall, Larson started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 4.5 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating, led 55 laps, and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Larson might’ve just had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the final green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader and looked to have the race in hand until late mayhem ensued which brought him back to the competition. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 7th, 2nd and then 1st. In fall 2022, Larson had some sort of issue under his hood which dropped him a handful of laps down around lap 79, and then later spun out on lap 192 and hit the wall, but by some miracle he finished 12th. In spring 2022, Larson was one of the best but finished last (36th). In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he rebounded up to 10th, his engine blew up. In a post DNF interview, Larson said his car was “super good.” In his four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish.

Martin Truex Jr.
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. is always a factor and on Sunday, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Truex is a two-time winner and if 2 of the last 3 races would’ve been incident free for him, that win tally could be at 4. Since 2020 at Darlington despite having five asterisk mark results over the last eight races, Truex has the 2nd best driver rating, the 2nd best average running position (8.6) and he’s averaged leading the most laps per race (75.8). On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Darlington Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has been a super-elite performer at Darlington. Truex has had quite a bit of asterisk mark results recently but “Performance Wise”, he’s often been the driver to beat and in 2 of the last 3 races, he could’ve easily walked away as the winner. When you look at the results column though, you’ll currently see four straight ugly results of 18th or worse. Last fall, Truex struggled and finished 18th. During the race weekend, Truex got into the wall during qualifying/practice and his team made no further repairs since they thought all was good, but that ultimately turned out not to be the case. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 21st. I’ll note, Truex’s race also wasn’t incident free. On lap 155, Truex who was around 15th prior to the green flag pit cycle pitted twice because of a loose wheel. This dropped Truex two laps down to 32nd. Last spring, Truex might’ve just been the best, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Truex won Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 when he was making a last lap pass on Chastain for the Stage win, the #1 bounced off the wall and into Truex which led to the #19 spinning which led to his 10th for that Stage. That put Truex behind, but he battled back. With 14 to go, Truex was up to 3rd but then he crashed during a restart which led to his 31st. Despite his multiple problems, Truex had a 5.2 average running position, led the most laps (145), had the best Green Flag Speed and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2022, Truex also nearly won again but on lap 328 while leading, Truex developed water pump issues which marked the end of his race leading to his 31st. In the race, Truex finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 48 laps, had the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Truex was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Truex led 28 laps, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.4 average running position but then in the final Stage things went south for him. On lap 260 he was in 4th, but then during that restart he spun and crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 4th. In 2021, Truex finished 4th in the fall and then put on a display of domination in the spring and raced his way to victory lane (led 248 laps).

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