Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington for the Goodyear 400! “The Track Too Tough To Tame” will mark the halfway point of the 2024 regular season. Darlington is a unique 1.33-mile egg shaped oval where tire wear is high, and the driver is a difference maker.
On Saturday, practice was held for Darlington. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes and Darlington 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet Heat Chart.
Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
NEW for 2024! Check out our Darlington Quick Rankings!
Darlington Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Darlington who should prominently be on your radar. Larson raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion last fall and he might’ve just been the best last spring too. Over Larson’s last five incident free Darlington races, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top 3. In 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, the #5 was fast and Larson had the best 15-lap average. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – At Darlington, Kyle Larson ranks as one of the premiere performers and in 2023, he could’ve easily pulled out the broom and had a season sweep if the spring race would’ve been incident free for him. Over the combined 2023 races, Hamlin ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, Larson started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 4.5 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating, led 55 laps, and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Hamlin might’ve just been the best too, but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the final green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader and looked to have the race in hand until late mayhem ensued which brought him back to the competition. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 7th, 2nd and then 1st. In 2022, Larson had multiple issues but finished 12th in the fall and then in the spring he looked to be a standout performer and was one of the best, but he spun and then later his engine blew up. In his four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish.
DraftKings $11,300/ FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading = Darlington Finish Projections, DraftKings Darlington Scoring Projections, FanDuel Darlington Scoring Projections, Darlington Next Gen Speed Rankings
2) Denny Hamlin
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – Denny Hamlin has been a dominant performer at Darlington and in the Goodyear 400, look for him to be a factor. Hamlin’s a 4-time winner and if last fall would’ve been incident free, I have no doubt he could’ve clinched win #5. Tire management is key, and I would argue Hamlin’s the premiere performer at that discipline. Last year at high-wear intermediates, Hamlin had the 4th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. This year, Hamlin’s won both races where tire wear has been high (Bristol and Richmond), and he’s also won at Dover which I view to be the most similar track.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is always tough to beat at Darlington. Hamlin’s had asterisk mark results in 3 of the 4 Next Gen races, but he hasn’t lacked when it comes to “Performance.” Last fall, Hamlin had a rocket and ranked #1 in our PROS Rankings for subjectively being the strongest, but he finished an asterisk mark 25th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 177 laps but in the last Stage while leading around lap 273 (leading prior to the pit cycle), Hamlin had a loose wheel and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap back to 30th which doomed his evening. Last spring, Hamlin finished 12th but don’t read into that result. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 his car took off on him and he got into the wall. After that, Hamlin was just never a factor, and that 12th can be chalked up to attrition. In 2022, Hamlin finished 2nd in the fall and then in the spring he belonged in the conversation of being one of the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In that race, Hamlin started in the back, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps but then he did bad pit strategy and was later involved in a wreck. In 2021, Hamlin led 146 laps and raced his way to victory lane in the fall and then finished 5th in the spring.
DraftKings $11,500/ FanDuel $13,500
3) Tyler Reddick
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – The high-line is the fast line at Darlington and on Sunday, look for this elite rim rider to be a factor. Reddick’s run well here and in 3 of the 4 races in the Next Gen, Reddick’s finished in either 2nd or 3rd and then in the one outlier, Reddick was also top ten good but was swept up in a restart wreck. Also over the combined races, Reddick has the 2nd best Driver Rating and the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – In the Next Gen at Darlington, Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer and ranks among the best. Last fall, Reddick had a hot rod and finished runner-up. In the race, Reddick finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a race best 2.6 average running position and led 90 laps. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Reddick finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 11th in Stage #2, was running in 8th on lap 278 but then during the ensuing restart, he crashed which led to his asterisk mark 22nd. In fall 2022, Reddick ran well and finished 3rd. Additionally, Reddick had an 8.5 average running position and ranked 7th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2022, Reddick finished runner-up. In the race, Reddick had a 10.4 average running position and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. He was solid, but attrition certainly helped at the end.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $12,500
