Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Alex Bowman
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Alex Bowman and the #48 team are running well and clicking off good results and at Sonoma, look for Bowman to be a top ten contender. Bowman’s been pretty solid at Sonoma over the years and in Hendrick equipment his average finish is 12.6 and he’s 5 for 5 at finishing between 9th to 16th. Since 2023 at road courses, Bowman has the 10th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and to open the season on this track type, he finished 4th at COTA.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma, Alex Bowman has been solid but not spectacular and over the last five races, Bowman has a 12.8 average finish. Currently in the Next Gen, Bowman has a 14.5 average finish and the 11th best Next Gen Speed Ranking (2 for 2 at ranking 13th). Last year, Bowman finished 15th, had a 14.3 average running position and ranked 13th in Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Bowman was OK. In the race he finished 16th, had a 14.5 average running position and ranked 13th for Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Bowman did have a minor mishap, so his race wasn’t completely incident free. On lap 80 he was running in 6th, but then during a restart shortly after that Kyle Busch spun into him which cost him quite a few spots and on lap 88 he was shown to be back in 28th, so he drove hard to close out the race. Over the three races prior to that, Bowman had results of 9th, 14th and 9th.

Ryan Blaney
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Blaney has been a strong performer at Sonoma. Blaney had a buzz-kill race last year en route to a 31st, but over his five races prior to that minus 2018 (power steering problems), Blaney’s finished in the top ten every race and had a 7th place average finish. Over the last four races held at road courses going back to last year, Blaney is 4 for 4 at finishing between 9th to 13th and has an 11.5 average finish.
Sonoma Track History – Ryan Blaney’s been strong at Sonoma and last year’s 31st is a clear outlier. In 2023 here, Blaney struggled. “Performance Wise”, Blaney was a high 20’s driver and not even desperate pit strategy which had him as high as 3rd on lap 95 could bail him out since on lap 103 while running in 6th he was spun twice that lap, which torpedoed his afternoon. In the race, Blaney had a 25.7 average running position and had the 34th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the three races prior to that stinker showing, Blaney had a 6.3 average finish. In 2022, Blaney had a solid race. In the race he started 14th, finished 10th in Stage #2, had an 8.8 average running position and then finished 6th overall. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked 6th for Total Speed Rankings and then 8th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Blaney finished 10th, had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. I’ll note, Blaney’s race wasn’t incident free. He got some front fender damage around lap 30, and then on lap 89 he was involved in an accident. I’ll note, that final accident didn’t impact him too much. In 2019, Blaney had a great performance and finished 3rd.

Brad Keselowski
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Brad Keselowski and the #6 team are red hot but at Sonoma, I would just view him as OK at best and have mid-teens expectations. He’s certainly no road course ringer and this spring at COTA to begin the season on this track type he finished 18th. Since 2023 at road courses, Keselowski has the 25th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and minus a troubled COTA 2023 performance his average finish is 20.6.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma over the last five races, Brad Keselowski has a 14.4 average finish, a 15.0 average running position and he’s 5 for 5 at finishing between 10th to 18th. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings over the combined races, Keselowski ranks 14th. Last year, Keselowski didn’t have an afternoon to brag about. In the race, Keselowski finished 16th, had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 21.9 average running position. In 2022, Keselowski was solid and finished 10th. Additionally, Keselowski had an 11.8 average running position and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three races prior to that, Keselowski had results of 15th, 18th and 15th. 

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier