Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon is struggling across the board so it’s hard to think that something good is going to come out of picking him at a road course. Dillon’s improved on this track type over the course of his career but with his current weekly form, you just have to think trouble is brewing. Since 2023 at road courses, Dillon has the 17th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and a 25.6 average finish. Over those seven races, Dillon has three results in the teens but four finishes of 26th or worse.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma over the last three races, Austin Dillon has a 14.3 average finish but take note, he had his worst result over that recent stretch last year and finished 19th. Also last year, Dillon had a 20.6 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In the two races prior to that, Dillon was legit solid and came home with finishes of 11th (2022) and 13th (2021).

Todd Gilliland
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland and the #38 team are running well, so he’ll have some upside at Sonoma for anyone looking to roll the dice. That said, viewing him as a 20’s performer with perhaps high-teens upside is smart. Gilliland looks quite racy at road courses at times (pair of top 11’s on this track type last year) but he’s 2 for 2 at finishing 24th at Sonoma and his Road Course Track Type Total Speed Ranking since 2023 ranks 26th
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma, Todd Gilliland has been consistent and he’s 2 for 2 at finishing 24th. Last year, Gilliland was relegated to the Rick Ware Racing #51, but he still finished 24th. Additionally, Gilliland ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 29.5 average running position. In 2022 in his debut, Gilliland finished 24th in his own #38.

Ryan Preece
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Preece is no road course ringer, but he might have upside. If you’re thinking of picking him, you’re likely braced for the worst, but he actually hasn’t been as bad as you’re thinking. Preece finished 13th here last summer and over the road course races since minus Indy RC, his average finish is 17.3. At COTA to begin the season at road courses, Preece finished a clunker 24th. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a 20’s performer who’ll have upside.
Sonoma Track History – Last year at Sonoma, Ryan Preece had a good race for himself. In the race, Preece started 22nd, finished 13th and had a 17.1 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Preece ranked 15th for Speed Late In A Run and ranked 18th for Total Speed Rankings. In his two starts prior to that, Preece had finishes of 21st (2021) and 29th (2019).

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