Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, look for 4-time road course winner Kyle Larson to be a factor and likely start up front. Up until last year where he qualified 16th, Larson had five straight poles at Sonoma. With the repave, starting up front will likely be more important than ever. At Sonoma in the #5, Larson smoked the field in 2021 and over the last three races he has the best Driver Rating, the 2nd best average running position (8.8) and his 8.0 average finish is tied for being the 3rd best. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Larson is tied for being the 5th fastest. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Sonoma Track History – In the #5 at Sonoma, Kyle Larson has been elite and in 2 of the 3 races, he could’ve easily won. Last year, Larson was strong but also sort of a letdown given the high expectations. In the race, Larson started 16th, had an 11.1 average running position and then finished 8th. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run, had the 7th best Green Flag Speed and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Larson likely had the best car but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven up thru the field to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 10th but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 12th, 15th and then 17th. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking. His speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 2nd and then 1st. In 4 of the 5 Sonoma races prior to that, Larson finished between 10th to 15th.

Martin Truex Jr.
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Defending Sonoma champ, Martin Truex Jr. will be tough to beat. Truex is a 4-time winner and in 5 of the last 10 Sonoma races, he’s led the most laps. Truex has owned this place and there’s little debate that he’s the best. I will note, being fast over a long run has been Truex’s historical key strength but with the repave, I think he’ll be impacted more than others in theory. That said, earlier this year Truex took part in testing on the new surface. Since 2023 at road courses, Truex has the 8th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. At COTA to begin the season on this track type, Truex finished 10th.
Sonoma Track History – Martin Truex Jr. is the premiere performer at Sonoma. The defending champ is now a 4-time winner and since 2016 minus 2022 and 2017 where he had engine problems, Truex has a 2.2 average finish, a 3.8 average running position and he’s averaged leading 34.4 laps per race. Last year, Truex took the competition to the woodshed, easily racing his way to victory lane. In addition to winning, Truex earned the best Driver Rating by a huge margin, had a 2.5 average running position and led 51 laps. In terms of speed stats, Truex ranked #1 across the board for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, JGR was just off on this track type and Truex finished 26th. That said, Truex wasn’t quite as bad as his result. On lap 101 he was running in 13th (9 to go), but then 3 laps later he came to pit road for fresh tires hoping to catch a late lucky caution which never materialized. In the race, Truex ranked 15th for Speed Late In A Run and 20th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Truex started in 19th, but drove hard and finished 4th when Stage #1 ended. When the checkered flag waved, Truex finished 3rd, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 7th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019 in the next most recent race, Truex finished 1st, led 59 laps, and ranked #1 across all the speed stats. In 2018, Truex had a phenomenal car and raced his way to victory lane.

Chase Elliott
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Chase Elliott is a super-elite performer at road courses who’ll be tough to beat. Elliott’s a 7-time winner on this track type, but Victory Lane has long eluded him at Sonoma. That said, Elliott hasn’t lacked when it comes to performance and since 2017 minus a 2019 engine failure his average finish is 5.4. Since 2023 at road courses minus Watkins Glen and COTA this spring where he was a top five contender until he got penalized, Elliott has a 4.8 average finish and his Speed Ranking over all the combined races ranks 7th. At Sonoma, look for Elliott to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Sonoma Track History – Chase Elliott has never won at Sonoma, but he’s performed at an elite level and in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished between 2nd to 8th, with an engine failure being the lone outlier. Last year, the #9 was fast and Elliott was a factor. In the race, Elliott finished 5th, had an 8.2 average running position, led 7 laps and earned the 8th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Elliott had a great chance to notch his first “W” at Sonoma, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Elliott led 26 laps but then late in Stage #2 while leading, Elliott had problems during a pit stop and was then penalized for pitting outside his pit box. That dropped him back to 33rd to start the final Stage which makes his 8th pretty impressive. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In the four races prior to that, Elliott had results of 2nd, 37th (engine blew up while running in 3rd), 4th and 8th.

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