Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Sonoma for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Sonoma is a freshly repaved technical 11 turn road course. The repave will change the dynamics of the race compared to what we’ve seen in the past, even though the race line is the same. Sonoma now is a low tire-wear track and record speeds are getting recorded. Before this was a race where drivers needed to manage tires. Some teams plan to approach the race with a 2-pit stop strategy, so this will certainly be a track position race.

On Friday, NASCAR held an extended practice session for Sonoma. Keep in mind in practice, teams have different agenda’s for how they want to approach the sessions (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Sonoma Practice Notes, Sonoma 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Sonoma Practice Speeds.

Here’s the Sonoma Starting Lineup.

Sonoma Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6/ Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Sonoma Outlook – Kyle Larson is an elite road course racer who’ll be tough to beat at Sonoma. Larson’s a 4-time road course winner and “Performance Wise”, Larson’s been good enough to win 2 of the last 3 Sonoma races. Over the last three Sonoma races which outline his tenure in the #5, Larson has the best Driver Rating, the 2nd best average running position (8.8) and his 8.0 average finish is tied for being the 3rd best. In practice, Kyle Larson had the best 5-lap average.
Sonoma Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been elite at Sonoma and in the #5 as you read above, he’s been one of the best. Last year, Kyle Larson was just solid. In the race, Larson finished 8th and had an 11.1 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run, had the 7th best Green Flag Speed and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Larson likely had the best car but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven up thru the field to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,000/ FanDuel $11,500

Further Recommended Reading = Sonoma Finish Projections, DraftKings Sonoma Scoring Projections, FanDuel Sonoma Scoring Projections

2) Tyler Reddick
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Sonoma Outlook – Tyler Reddick is a super-elite road course racer who’ll be a popular pick at Sonoma, but I’ll note this track has had his number. Reddick currently has back-to-back results in the 30’s here and his overall average finish over his three starts is 29th. That said, Reddick’s had problems in the last two races while running in 4th, so he hasn’t exactly been lacking when it comes to performance. At road courses in the Next Gen, Reddick has the best overall Total Speed Ranking. Since 2023 at these venues, Reddick has the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and minus Sonoma last year, Reddick has a 7.6 average finish. To start 2024 on this track type at COTA, Reddick finished 5th and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Reddick had the 2nd best 10-lap average and was the only driver who did a 15-lap run.
Sonoma Track Record Breakdown – Tyler Reddick has back-to-back asterisk mark results in the 30’s at Sonoma but he didn’t lack in either race when it comes to performance. Last year, Tyler Reddick was a top ten performer but finished a misleading 33rd. In the race, Reddick had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked 10th for Speed Late In A Run, finished 6th in Stage #1 but late in the race on lap 96 while running in 4th, Reddick had a flat tire and also got a short cutting the track penalty at the same time which doomed him to his poor result. In 2022, Reddick showed top five potential, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. On lap 50 he was running in 4th, but then shortly after that he was penalized for speeding on pit road which dropped him to the back. Then early in the Final Stage back in traffic, Josh Bilicki spun, and Tyler Reddick hit him and then came to pit road and said something broke. When the checkered flag waved, Reddick finished 35th. Prior to his speeding penalty, Reddick consistently ran around the top five. In 2021, Reddick finished 19th.
DraftKings $9,500/ FanDuel $12,500

3) Chase Elliott
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Sonoma Outlook – Chase Elliott is a 7-time road course winner and at Sonoma, look for him to have a strong showing and be a factor. Elliott’s never won here but since 2017 minus 2019 where he had an engine failure while running in 3rd, Elliott’s average finish is 5.4. Since 2023 at road courses minus Watkins Glen and COTA this spring where he was a top five contender until he got penalized, Elliott has a 4.8 average finish and his Total Speed Ranking over the combined races ranks 7th.
Sonoma Track Record Breakdown – Chase Elliott has been an elite performer at Sonoma and in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished between 2nd to 8th, with an engine failure being the lone outlier. Last year, the #9 was fast and Elliott was one of the best. In the race, Elliott finished 5th, had an 8.2 average running position, led 7 laps and earned the 8th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Elliott had a great chance to win, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Elliott led 26 laps but then late in Stage #2 while leading, Elliott had problems during a pit stop and was then penalized for pitting outside his pit box. That dropped him back to 33rd to start the final Stage which makes his 8th pretty impressive. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In the four races prior to that, Elliott had results of 2nd, 37th (engine blew up while running in 3rd), 4th and 8th.
DraftKings $9,300/ FanDuel $11,000