New Hampshire Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Justin Haley
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – At New Hampshire, Justin Haley will be a dark horse for those looking deep on the depth chart. Heading into the weekend I would view him as a high-teens to low-twenties driver, but he’ll have upside for those looking to roll the dice. Gateway is a similar track and just a few weeks ago at that venue, Haley finished 9th but take note of his 19th best Total Speed Ranking and 19.5 average running position. I would say Phoenix is the next most similar track visited this year and Haley finished 24th there.
New Hampshire Track History – At New Hampshire in the Next Gen which outlines his tenure in his former Kaulig #31, Justin Haley had an 18.5 average finish and the 20th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last year, Haley finished 17th, had a 22.4 average running position and had the 20th best Speed Ranking. In 2022, Haley finished 20th.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – At New Hampshire with the way Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is running right now, I think it’s best to just view him as a about a 20th place performer, tops. Stenhouse just finished 20th at Gateway and at Phoenix which I would say is the next most similar track he finished 21st this spring. In 2024 in terms of Total Speed Rankings over the combined races, Stenhouse ranks 32nd.
New Hampshire Track History – At New Hampshire, Stenhouse has been about 20th place good. In the Next Gen over the combined races, Stenhouse has a 20.0 average finish and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 26th. Going back a little bit further over the last four, Stenhouse has a 17.3 average finish. Last year at “The Magic Mile”, Stenhouse finished 18th, had a 25.1 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 26th. I’ll note, on lap 41 while running in 19th, Stenhouse was said to have gotten into the wall so you would have to think that impacted his afternoon. In 2022, Stenhouse finished 22nd and had a 23.5 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 28th. In 2021, Stenhouse finished 15th, had a 16.5 average running position and had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Stenhouse started way back in 31st, but came home 14th.

Austin Dillon
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon can come home with solid showings at shorter-flat tracks from time to time and he just recently finished 6th at Gateway, so there’s some hope this weekend. That said that performance is such an anomaly in 2024 I wouldn’t feel comfortable picking him off that and instead I would view him as a 20’s performer who’ll have mid to high-teens upside.
New Hampshire Track History – Austin Dillon hasn’t been bad at New Hampshire. Dillon legit finished 9th last year and over the last four races his average finish is a solid 15.5. In 2023, Dillon finished 9th, led 12 laps via pit strategy, had a 17.7 average running position and ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Dillon used pit strategy late and during a the Gragson caution with about 30 laps to go, he elected not to pit which got him up to 2nd, so he semi-held on until the end to finish 9th. On lap 268 just prior to that pit strategy play, Dillon was in 22nd. In 2022, Dillon had an eventful afternoon and finished 23rd. In the race, Dillon had a beating and banging battle with Keselowski under caution, hit Kevin Harvick on pit road and to top it off he made an unexpected pit stop for a flat tire on lap 274 while running around 20th. In addition to finishing 23rd, Dillon had a 24.5 average running position and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Dillon finished 17th, had a 19.7 average running position, the 18th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 15th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2020, Dillon finished 7th in Stage #2, finished 13th overall, had a 16.8 average running position and ranked as the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.

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