New Hampshire Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Christopher Bell
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – Christopher Bell is a super-elite shorter-flat track performer and at New Hampshire, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Bell’s won this race previously (2022) and in 2024 at shorter-flat tracks, Bell’s arguably been the best, having the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, he’s tied for the best average finish (4.7), has the best Driver Rating and the best Average Running Position. Gateway is a similar track and just a few weeks ago, Bell likely would’ve won that race if it wasn’t for late engine problems. On Sunday, look for Bell to be a factor to win, or have a problem while battling for the win.
New Hampshire Track History – Christopher Bell has performed at a super-elite level at New Hampshire but he’s either been a hero or zero. Over his four races, Bell has 2 results in the top two but over the other two he’s finished in the high 20’s. Last year, Bell had a hot rod but he finished an asterisk mark 29th after having a laundry list of problems. In the race, Bell started on the pole, led the first lap (only lap he led) but then during the early AJ Allmendinger caution he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 2nd to 10th. When Stage #1 ended, Bell finished 6th. Then during the Stage #1 caution, Bell pitted twice because of a loose wheel which dropped him to the back. When Stage #2 ended, Bell finished 10th. Then in the last Stage, Bell climbed as high as 5th on lap 268 but then to close out the race, Bell did a four-tire pit stop when others took two which dropped him back a little bit more. Then on lap 288 while running in 8th, Bell got into the wall hard which doomed him to his 29th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 7th. In 2022, Bell smoked the field when it was closing time and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position and led 42 laps, which I’ll note were the final 42. In terms of speed stats, Bell had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the fastest driver late in a run. In 2021, Bell had a great performance and finished 2nd. In the race, Bell had a 6.6 average running position, had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. At the end, Bell fielded the 2nd fastest car in the final segment and was chasing down Aric Almirola for the win. If the race went the advertised distance, he might’ve just been able to pull it off. In 2020, Bell may have very well been a top five contender, but two flat tires doomed him to a 28th. At the time of his first flat on lap 172, Bell was running in 6th.

General Content Note: I do view Iowa as a shorter-flat track but I’m not going to view it as a relevant in terms of “Shorter-flat tracks” for New Hampshire yet, so it’s omitted from that form of stat.

Denny Hamlin
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite shorter-flat track performer and at New Hampshire, he’ll be tough to beat. My long running Denny Hamlin fantasy mantra is, “If its short or flat, pick Hamlin.” That principle definitely applies at New Hampshire. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has been fast and over the combined races, Hamlin has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating, the 2nd best Average Running Position and he’s tied for having a series best 4.7 average finish. At these venues, Hamlin finished 2nd at Gateway, won at Richmond and then spun out while battling for the lead at Phoenix (led 68 laps, finished 11th). At New Hampshire, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
New Hampshire Track History – New Hampshire ranks among Denny Hamlin’s best tracks. Hamlin’s a three-time winner who’s finished in the top seven 46% of the time, and in the top ten 63% of the time. Over the last five races, Hamlin has 2-runner-ups, a 5.4 average finish and the 3rd best Driver Rating. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has a 6.5 average finish and the 5th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last year, the #11 was strong and Hamlin ran well throughout. In the race, Hamlin started 20th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 6.4 average running position and then finished 7th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 5th for Total Speed Rankings and 6th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Hamlin had a solid showing and finished 6th. I’ll note, the #11 team had multiple pit stops that were egregiously slow, so he was put back in traffic quite frequently just about every time he advanced over a run. In addition to finishing 6th, Hamlin had a 12.3 average running position, the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 5th for speed late in a run. In 2021, Hamlin finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 and then 10th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, Hamlin’s race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #2 caution (finished 4th), Hamlin had to pit twice for a lugnut problem which dropped him to the back. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 5th best. In the two races prior to that, Hamlin had back-to-back 2nds (led 92 laps and led 113 in the other).

Ryan Blaney
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Blaney is an elite performer at New Hampshire who should be high on your radar. Blaney currently has back-to-back asterisk mark results here of 18th or worse, but I have no doubt he could be a contender on Sunday. Gateway is a similar track and just a few weeks ago, Blaney would’ve raced his way to victory lane there if he had a splash more fuel. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Blaney has the 5th best Total Speed Ranking for the season.
New Hampshire Track History – Ryan Blaney has run well at New Hampshire, but I’ll note the results column hasn’t been pretty recently and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished 18th or worse. Last year, Blaney had a hot rod and was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 22nd. In the race, Blaney finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 but then during the Gragson caution with about 30 laps to go while running in 2nd, Blaney got a pit penalty for running over his air hose which dropped him to the back, dooming him to his 22nd. In terms of speed stats, Blaney had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Blaney didn’t have an incident free race, and it was also kind of an “off-race” in terms of performance from the #12 team. In the race, Blaney started 11th, finished about 18th in Stage #1 and then in Stage #2 on lap 146 while running in 19th, he spun and got into the wall. The #12 was able to continue logging laps and Blaney went on to finish 18th. In 2021, a strong case could be made that Blaney was the best. In the race, Blaney won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating, led the 2nd most laps (64) and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Up until the final pit cycle, Blaney was the race leader. In 2020, Blaney was a top ten contender but was burned by a caution during the pit cycle and went on to finish 20th. In the three races prior to that, Blaney had results of 4th, 7th and 9th.

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