New Hampshire USA Today 301 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday (or perhaps Monday), NASCAR will be racing at New Hampshire for the USA Today 301. New Hampshire is a flat 1.0-mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter flat track.” Other shorter flat tracks that I would recommend that you look back to for correlation purposes are Gateway, Phoenix, Iowa and Richmond (2024 Shorter-Flat Track Total Speed Rankings). New Hampshire is a relatively quick race, and track position is king. It’s just 301 laps with Stages set for 75/185/301.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. The most any driver logged was 7-laps, and those were likely semi-cautious laps since it was sprinkling. Personally, I would pretend practice never happened and no lessons were learned. That said, here’s a look at New Hampshire 5-Lap Averages, New Hampshire Practice Speeds and New Hampshire Practice Notes.
Here’s the New Hampshire Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup. The starting lineup was set by the metric.
NEW for 2024, here’s our New Hampshire “Quick Rankings!”
New Hampshire USA Today 301 Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Christopher Bell
Start 4th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
New Hampshire Outlook – Christopher Bell is a super-elite performer at New Hampshire and on Sunday, the #20 will be fast and the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. At “The Magic Mile”, Bell’s been stout. Bell had one of the best cars last year, he smoked the field in 2022 en route to victory lane and if 2021 went the advertised distance, he likely would’ve won that race too! This year at shorter-flat tracks, Bell’s been the premiere performer, having the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating and the best average finish (4.5). I view Phoenix and Gateway to have the most correlation and Bell raced his way to victory lane at Phoenix and likely would’ve won Gateway if he didn’t have engine issues.
New Hampshire Track Record Breakdown – Christopher Bell has performed at a super-elite level at New Hampshire but in terms of the results column, he’s either been a hero or zero. Over his four races, Bell has 2 results in the top two but in the other two he’s finished in the high 20’s. “Performance Wise”, Bell’s 4 for 4 at being a top five performer. Last year, Bell was one of the best but he had a poorly executed race and finished an asterisk mark 29th. In the race, Bell started on the pole, led the first lap (only lap he led) but then during the first caution he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 2nd to 10th. When Stage #1 ended, Bell finished 6th. Then during the Stage #1 caution, Bell pitted twice for a loose wheel. When Stage #2 ended, Bell rebounded to finish 10th. Then in the last Stage, Bell climbed as high as 5th on lap 268 but then to close out the race, Bell did a four-tire pit stop when others took two which dropped him back a little bit more. Then on lap 288 while running in 8th, Bell got into the wall hard which doomed him to his 29th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 7th. In 2022, Bell smoked the field and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position and led the final 42 laps. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked as the fastest driver late in a run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Bell had a great performance and finished 2nd. If the race went the advertised distance, I think there’s a very good chance he would’ve won. In 2020, Bell was a top five contender, but two flat tires doomed him to a 28th. At the time of his first flat on lap 172, Bell was running in 6th.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,500
Further Recommended Reading – New Hampshire Finish Projections, DraftKings New Hampshire Scoring Projections, FanDuel New Hampshire Scoring Projections
2) Ryan Blaney
Start 2nd/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
New Hampshire Outlook – Ryan Blaney is red hot and at New Hampshire, look for him to be fast and be a factor. Blaney’s performed at an elite level at “The Magic Mile” and ranks as one of the best, despite what you’ll see in the results column over the last few races. Last year, Blaney was unquestionably one of the best, but finished an asterisk mark 22nd after getting a late pit penalty while running in 2nd. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Blaney’s been a standout performer, having the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and if he didn’t run out of gas on the last lap at Gateway, he would have back-to-back wins.
New Hampshire Track Record Breakdown – Ryan Blaney’s run well at New Hampshire but he’s had an asterisk mark in 3 of the last 4 races, so that might have him a little under the radar in that respect. Last year, the #12 was a rocket and Blaney was one of the best but he finished an asterisk mark 22nd. In the race, Blaney finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 but then during the Gragson caution with about 30 laps to go while running in 2nd, Blaney got a pit penalty for running over his air hose which dropped him to the back, dooming him to his 22nd. In terms of speed stats, Blaney had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Blaney kind of had an off race but he also did get into the wall and as a result he finished 18th. Personally, I wouldn’t read into that too much. In 2021, a strong case could be made that Blaney was the best. In the race, Blaney won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating, led the 2nd most laps (64) and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Up until the final pit cycle, Blaney was the race leader. In 2020, Blaney was a top ten contender but was burned by a caution during the pit cycle and went on to finish 20th. In the three races prior to that, Blaney had results of 4th, 7th and 9th.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $12,000
3) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 7th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
New Hampshire Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at New Hampshire who’ll be tough to beat. Truex put on a display of domination last year en route to victory lane and he’s consistently performed at an elite level, having finished in the top 7 in 8 of the last 9 races. Truex has also often been dominant here and in 7 of the last 10 races, he’s led +83 laps. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and an 8.7 average finish minus Gateway.
New Hampshire Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has been a premiere performer at New Hampshire. Truex put on a display of domination last year, he’s been on his own level in the Next Gen and over the last nine races, Truex has the best average finish (5.0), the best average running position (6.4), the best Driver Rating and the only race he finished outside the top 7, he was damaged in an early rain wreck. In the Next Gen over the combined races, Truex has a 2.5 average finish, a 2.3 average running position, he’s averaged leading 213 laps per race, he’s won all four opening Stages and he has the best Driver Rating. Last year, Truex absolutely dominated the competition and there’s no debate he was the best. In the race, Truex won both Stages, led 254 laps, earned a perfect Driver Rating and had a perfect Total Speed Ranking (fastest car over all four segments). In 2022, Truex was the class of the field, but a two-tire pit stop with a little under 100 laps to go just didn’t seem to agree with his car, and he simply wasn’t at his best late. In the race, Truex won the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 172 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, had the best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 4th overall. In 2021, Truex was damaged early in the rain and finished 12th, so don’t have any real takeaways from that race. In the six New Hampshire races prior to that, Truex had results of 3rd, 6th, 4th, 5th, 3rd and 7th.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $14,000
