Nashville Ally 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Cindric
Nashville Fantasy Outlook – In “Music City”, I don’t see anything good coming out of Austin Cindric and I would just pencil him in as a 20’s performer who’ll have a high-teens ceiling. That said, Cindric did have one of his best finishes of the year at Dover where he finished 15th, and that’s arguably the most similar track when you take the surface into account (Concrete). In 2024 over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Grouping, Cindric ranks 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Nashville Track History – At Nashville, Cindric has two starts under his belt with the difference between his results being 20. Last year, Austin Cindric was quite bad and finished 27th. In the race, Cindric had a 25.9 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022 in his Nashville debut, Cindric finished 7th. That said, Cindric had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and a 22.7 average running position. I’ll note, Cindric’s race wasn’t incident free. On lap 99 he was running in 19th, but then on lap 102 he made an unexpected pit stop for a tire issue. That was a setback for much of the afternoon but once he got back on the lead lap, he caught a “Lucky Break Caution” during the pit cycle when Buescher had a flat which jumped him from about the mid-twenties, to about the mid-teens. Then to close out the race, the #2 was at its best and over the 4th segment he ranked 12th in terms of speed.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Nashville Fantasy Outlook – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished worse in each new race at Nashville, so let’s hope that trend ends, especially since he finished 22nd last year. Going off his 2024 weekly baseline level of performance, its best to likely just view him as a 20’s performer. This year over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Grouping, Stenhouse ranks 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Nashville Track History – At Nashville, things have gotten worse for Stenhouse in each new race in terms of the results column. Last year, Stenhouse was simply a low 20’s performer. In the race, Stenhouse finished 22nd, had a 22.1 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Stenhouse finished 16th but I would say that result actually overrates him. In the race, Stenhouse had a 20.4 average running position, the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and was running in 22nd with 10 laps to go before the late caution came out. In 2021, Stenhouse had a great performance. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position and then finished 6th overall. In terms of speed analytics, Stenhouse ranked #2 in Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run.

Austin Dillon
Nashville Fantasy Outlook – At Nashville, Austin Dillon has been quite solid and over the combined races, Dillon has a 13th place average finish and he’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 12th to 14th. Can he keep the good times going? Probably not and with his current level of performance, I would just view him as about a 20’s performer who’ll have upside. This year over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Grouping, Dillon has a 20.6 average finish and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks 29th.
Nashville Track History – As you read above, Austin Dillon has been quite solid at New Hampshire and over the combined races, Dillon has a 13.0 average finish. In the Next Gen over the last two, Dillon ranks 21st in terms of speed. Last year, Dillon started 26th, had a 19.0 average running position, had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 13th. To close out the race, the #3 was at his best and over the 4th segment he ranked 14th in terms of speed. Over the first three segments prior to that, Dillon ranked 21st, 21st and 21st in terms of speed. In 2022, Dillon finished 14th, but that result somewhat overrates his afternoon. In the race, Dillon had a 22.4 average running position and the 25th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Dillon closed out the race in strong fashion and from lap 261 until the completion he ran between the low double-digits to mid-teens. In 2021, Dillon had a strong showing at Nashville in the tracks debut. In the race he finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2 and then finished 12th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, Dillon used late pit strategy in both the Stages to get extra points, so don’t read into those too much. His overall 12th is legitimate though.

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