Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones has been great at Pocono. Jones is 2 for 2 at finishing 9th in the Next Gen and overall, in 8 of his 12 Pocono races he’s finished in the top 9. That said in 2024, Jones hasn’t shown any speed so it’s hard to think he’ll suddenly show up and run well. Heading into the weekend, I would view Jones as a high-teens driver but note it can only get worse after that.
Pocono Track History – Erik Jones has been stellar at Pocono, and it ranks among his best tracks with his 66% top 9 finish rate. In the Next Gen, Jones is 2 for 2 at finishing 9th and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 14th. Last year en route to his 9th, Jones had a solid afternoon. In the race, Jones started 24th, had a 16.2 average running position, earned the 12th best Driver Rating and then of course finished 9th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 18th but take note over the last quarter of the race, he was at his best and ranked as the 10th fastest. In 2022, Jones had a strong showing. In the race, Jones finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 11 laps, had an 11.1 average running position and then finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. In 2021 during the doubles, Jones stunk it up with results of 31st (Flat tire on lap 95 while running in 25th) and 22nd.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – At Pocono, I would view Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as about a 20th place driver who’ll have upside. Pocono hasn’t been that bad of a track for Stenhouse by his standards and by some miracle, he’s been finishing quite well in recent races this season and in 3 of the last 4 races heading into the weekend he’s finished between 5th to 7th.
Pocono Track History – At Pocono in 5 of the last 6 races, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished between 7th to 18th with his average finish over that stretch being 14.4 minus a misleading 2021 #2. Last year, Stenhouse had his best race ever at “The Tricky Triangle” and notched his only top ten over his 20 starts and came home 7th. In the race, Stenhouse started 22nd, had a 19.4 average running position and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, Stenhouse did use some pit strategy late but he hung tough in the top ten to close out. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Stenhouse ranked 26th. In 2022 en route to an 18th, Stenhouse had a 17.2 average running position and the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021 race #2, Stenhouse finished an asterisk mark 38th. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, but then in the final Stage on lap 112 while he was running around 10th, the #47 had an engine failure that doomed his race. For the afternoon, Stenhouse had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In Pocono #1 2021, Stenhouse overcame a restart penalty to finish 15th. Additionally, Stenhouse had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Stenhouse had results of 15th and 17th.

Austin Dillon
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – At Pocono, I would prepare for the worst if you pick Austin Dillon. The #3 team is extremely uncompetitive right now and they have a hard time avoiding trouble on the track, which is a dangerous combo. In recent races at Pocono, Austin Dillon has actually been pretty solid and in 3 of the last 5 races he’s finished between 10th to 14th. Heading into the weekend, I would view Dillon as a 20’s performer who’ll have upside.
Pocono Track History – Austin Dillon has been consistent at Pocono and in 13 of his 18 starts, he’s finished between 10th to 19th. Over the last five minus 2023, Dillon has a 14.5 average finish. Last year, Dillon had a good chance to finish within that range once again but on lap 105 while running in 11th, Dillon crashed which marked the end of his race. Dillon also brought out another caution earlier in the race when he got into the wall and spun on lap 42 while running in 26th, but that was ultimately a non-factor. When the checkered flag waved, Dillon finished 34th. In 2022, Dillon had his only Pocono top ten and came home 10th but of course it took Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin disqualifications to accomplish it. In the race, Dillon had a 16.4 average running position and the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021 during the doubles, Dillon had results of 13th and 21st.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier