Richmond Cook Out 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon 
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Richmond ranks as one of Austin Dillon’s best tracks, but with how 2024 is going, its probably best to brace for the worst. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Dillon snuck in a 6th at Gateway but over the other four races he’s been quite bad and has a 27th place average finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings at these venues in 2024, Dillon ranks 27th. At Richmond, I would view Dillon as a 20’s driver who might have mid to high-teens potential if things go really well but I wouldn’t count on it.
Richmond Track History – Richmond hasn’t been a bad track for Austin Dillon, and I would dare say he’s overall been pretty solid. Since 2018, Dillon has finished in the top 16 in 9 of the 12 races. That said, his two outliers have come in the last three races, and one of them was this spring. This spring at Richmond, Dillon finished 24th, had a 24.3 average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. Last summer, Dillon ran well and finished 9th. Additionally, Dillon had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14.4 average running position. In spring 2023, the #3 didn’t run well and Dillon finished 25th. Additionally, Dillon had a 23.4 average running position and ranked 21st for Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. In the four races prior to that, Dillon had solid finishes of 16th, 10th, 11th and 10th.

Daniel Suarez
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – At Richmond, Daniel Suarez might have a respectable showing, but I wouldn’t get bullish. Suarez hasn’t cracked the top 15 since 2019, so it’s been a while since he had success. The attribute I like about Suarez is that he’s been running better recently and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished 16th or better, with him finishing 9th at Iowa which is similar. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Suarez has a 17.6 average finish and ranks 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. At Richmond, I would view Suarez as a 20’s performer who might have upside.
Richmond Track History – Daniel Suarez has had some front loaded career success at Richmond but not so much recently. In the Next Gen, Suarez has the 25th best Next Gen Speed Ranking and a 22.6 average finish. This spring, the #99 wasn’t good and Suarez finished 22nd. Additionally, Suarez had a 20.3 average running position and the 28th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Suarez did bring out a caution when he was harmlessly spun while running in 9th on lap 64, but he had plenty of time to recover from it. Last summer there was only one caution outside of the Stage cautions and that was Daniel Suarez spinning with 10 laps to go while running around 28th. When the checkered flag waved, Suarez finished 33rd. In spring 2023, Suarez finished a clunker 23rd. In the race, Suarez had a 15.5 average running position and the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Suarez’s average running position is a lot more reflective of his afternoon. With 30 laps to go before late cautions/ restarts he was running in 16th minus the cars who didn’t pit. In the four races prior to that, Suarez was 4 for 4 at finishing between 16th to 19th.

Erik Jones
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – At Richmond, I’m not expecting much out of Erik Jones. Jones was respectable this spring (14th) but with him finishing 19th or worse in 10 of the last 12 races heading into the weekend, its best to keep expectations low. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Jones has a 23.2 average finish and the 28th best Total Speed Ranking.
Richmond Track History – This spring at Richmond, Erik Jones was solid and finished 14th, which is legit with him being at his best down the stretch. Additionally, Jones had a 19.1 average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last summer, Jones finished 23rd and had a 23.9 average running position. In spring 2023, Jones was junk and finished 31st. In the race, Jones had a 29.8 average running position and then ranked 33rd for Green Flag Speed, Speed Late In A Run and Total Speed Rankings. In the five races prior to that, Jones had results of 35th (crashed in the final Stage while running around 20th), 23rd, 21st, 19th and 22nd.

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