On Sunday night, NASCAR will be returning for the Richmond Cook out 400. Richmond is a high tire-wear .75-mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-Flat Track.” Other shorter-flat tracks visited this year which have correlation and should be studied are Phoenix, New Hampshire, Iowa and Gateway (2024 Shorter-Flat Track Total Speed Rankings). This weekend, NASCAR is rolling out the “Option Tire” for its debut in a points race. This tire was first used in the All-Star Race. The option tire should provide more speed over a short run but wear out much quicker. Teams only have two sets of the option tire, so it will likely only come into play during late cautions near the end of the race or late in Stages.

On Saturday, NASCAR held an extended unified practice session. Teams had 45 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc). Make sure you check out our Richmond Practice Notes, Richmond 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Richmond Practice Speeds and 10 Lap Averages. I’ll note, being fast in practice was largely about starting on the option tire and being out on the track early. I wouldn’t overreact too much to practice speeds. 

NEW for 2024, Check out our Richmond Quick Rankings if you’re in a rush!

Here’s the Richmond Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Richmond Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Christopher Bell
Start 5th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6/ Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Christopher Bell has been the premiere performer at shorter-flat tracks in 2024 and at Richmond in the Cook Out 400, the #20 will be a rocket and he’ll be tough to beat. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Bell has 2-wins, the best average finish (3.8), the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, the best average running position, he’s averaged running the most fastest laps per race (48.8) and he has the best Driver Rating by a wide margin. I’ll note, crew chief Adam Steven’s isn’t at the track this weekend due to a vacation injury, but I don’t think that will ultimately be a setback.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Christopher Bell has been a fantasy ace at Richmond. Bell was a contender to win this spring and since 2021 minus last summer where he just missed the setup, Bell is 6 for 6 at finishing between 2nd to 6th and has a 4.2 average finish. This spring, Bell might’ve just been able to pull off the win, but he finished 6th. In the race, Bell started 29th, finished 6th in Stage #2, led 9 laps but then in the final Stage when he was running long during a green flag pit cycle which would’ve given him a tire advantage at the end, Bell was caught speeding on pit road. On lap 283 before that green flag pit cycle started, Bell was running in 4th and notably ahead of Hamlin who used the same tire strategy. When the checkered flag waved, Bell finished 6th. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. Last summer, Bell started 29th, finished 20th and had a 22.1 average running position. I’ll note, on lap 133 while running in 18th, Bell got a speeding penalty, so his race wasn’t exactly incident free but at no point was he competitive. In spring 2023, Bell was one of the best. In the race, Bell finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.2 average running position, led 26 laps and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Bell had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In the four races prior to that, Bell had results of 2nd, 6th, 3rd and 4th.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading – Richmond Finish Projections, DraftKings Richmond Scoring Projections, FanDuel Richmond Scoring Projections 

2) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Richmond spring winner, Denny Hamlin is a super-elite shorter-flat track performer who’ll be tough to beat as he vies for the season sweep. At Richmond, Hamlin’s a 5-time winner and in 14 of the last 17 races he’s finished in the top 6. Over the last seven Richmond races minus spring 2023 where he had one of the best cars but didn’t have an incident free race, Hamlin has a 2.0 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks minus Iowa (missed the setup & crashed) and New Hampshire where he was the race leader before “Rain Goofiness ensued”, Hamlin has a 4.7 average finish.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is a 5-time Richmond winner who’s always tough to beat at his home track. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has the 2nd best Speed Ranking and minus spring 2023 where his race was anything but incident free, Hamlin has 2-wins and a 2.0 average finish. This spring, Hamlin didn’t have the best car and was on pace to finish 3rd, but he took advantage of the late caution and raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run. Last summer, Hamlin had a hot rod and ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 20 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin might’ve just been the best, but he had multiple problems (two speeding penalties and a slow pit stop) and finished an asterisk mark 20th. In that race, Hamlin led 71 laps, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 4th, 1st, 2nd and 2nd.
DraftKings $10,700/ FanDuel $13,500

3) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Richmond who’ll be tough to beat. Truex was the class of the field this spring and “Performance Wise”, Truex could’ve potentially won 6 of the last 10 Richmond races. Over the last 10 races at “The Action Track”, Truex has 3-wins, a 4.3 average finish, he’s averaged leading 86.4 laps per race and his Driver Rating is the best by a wide margin. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has the 6th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and minus Iowa (just off) and Gateway (engine) his average finish is 6.7.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. is one of the premiere performers at Richmond. In the Next Gen, Truex has the 2nd best Driver Rating, the 2nd best Average Running Position (7.4) and his 6.6 average finish ranks as the 3rd best but that underrates him. This spring, Truex was the class of the field, but a late caution robbed him of certain victory. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 228 laps, had a 2.9 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating but then finished 4th. During the late caution, Truex came off pit road 2nd and then had a bad restart. In terms of speed stats, Truex had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last summer, Truex had a solid showing but was a little off by his standards. In the race, Truex finished 7th and had a 13.6 average running position. In spring 2023, the #19 was stout and if a late caution didn’t come out which put Truex at a tire disadvantage, I think he likely would’ve won but instead he finished 11th (He put on scuffs, everyone else had new tires). In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #2, led 56 laps, had a 6.7 average running position and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Truex finished 7th in the summer and then in the spring, Truex looked to be the class of the field (led 80 laps, 3.9 average running position, earned the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking) but was beat by pit strategy and finished 4th. In the six Richmond races prior to that, Truex had results of 1st, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd.
DraftKings $10,100/ FanDuel $13,000