Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Michigan and the road to victory lane will likely go thru him. At MIS, Larson’s a 3-time winner and over his last four races his average finish is 5th. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, nobody has been better than Kyle Larson. Larson’s tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking and if he didn’t lose a wheel while leading at Texas under caution, he could easily be 3 for 3 at reaching victory lane (didn’t compete at Charlotte). Also for the season at high-speed intermediates, Larson has the best Driver Rating, the best average running position and he’s averaged leading 107 laps per race. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Larson ranks among the premiere performers at Michigan. He’s a three-time winner and over the last four he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 3rd to 7th with his average finish being 5.0. Last year, the #5 was strong and Larson finished 5th despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2 but then early in the last Stage following the Bowman caution around lap 130, he pitted twice due to fear of getting damaged. Following that, Larson drove up from about 30th to his 5th place finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 11th. In 2022, Larson had a strong showing and finished 7th, but I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then during that Stage caution he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the low 20’s. The #5 didn’t lack speed and in the race, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, the 5th best Green Flag Speed and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led a race high 70 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then finished 3rd overall. I’ll note, Larson did have a hiccup along the way. While leading on lap 158, Larson ran out of fuel. I’ll note, it wasn’t a huge issue, but it certainly didn’t help.

Denny Hamlin
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Michigan who’ll be tough to beat. Hamlin’s been a standout performer at Michigan over the last few years and this year at high-speed intermediates, Hamlin’s tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking and has a 6.0 average finish minus Texas where he likely would’ve won if there wasn’t a late caution and then crashed late. Also for the season on this track type, Hamlin has the 2nd best Driver Rating and the 2nd best average running position. One race I’ll highlight is Kansas which I view to have the most correlation. At that venue, Hamlin led 71 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and likely would’ve won if there wasn’t a late caution.
Michigan Track History – At Michigan, Denny Hamlin is a 2-time winner who’s performed at an elite -level. Over the last six Michigan races, Hamlin has 2-runner-ups, he’s finished in the top 6 every race and his average finish is a series best 3.5. In the Next Gen over the last two, Hamlin’s 2 for 2 at finishing 3rd and has the best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last year, Hamlin had a rocket and finished 3rd despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 13th, finished 8th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 around lap 105 while running in 5th, Hamlin had trouble getting going again after a pit stop and that dropped him to the back. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 2nd. If his race would’ve been incident free, Hamlin likely would’ve been a contender. In 2022, Hamlin arguably had the best car, but he finished 3rd due to his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 5.3 average running position, led 38 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 158 but then during the Bell/Chastain caution he was penalized for too many men over the wall which dropped him back to the high-teens. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed, #1 for Speed Late In A Run and was tied for #1 in Total Speed Rankings. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 5th, 2nd, 6th and 2nd.

Tyler Reddick
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – At Michigan, look for Tyler Reddick to be a contender. Reddick was a factor to win last summer and in 2024 at high-speed intermediates, he’s been one of the premiere performers. This year on this sub-track type, Reddick has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, he’s finished in the top four in 3 of the 4 races, has the 3rd best Driver Rating and the 3rd best average finish (7.5).
Michigan Track History – Tyler Reddick has run well at Michigan, but his track record is super bad. At MIS over his five starts, Reddick has a 26th place average finish and he has the uncanny distinction of never finishing better than he finished in the previous race. Last summer, the #45 looked to be a rocket but Reddick finished an asterisk mark 30th. In the race, Reddick logged many laps in the final Stage in 2nd but then on lap 158 during green flag pit stops where he was running in 2nd, Reddick had a loose wheel following his pit stop which led to a long, unexpected pit stop which dropped him 3 laps down. In the race, Reddick had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking but take note his speed over the segments were 9th, 6th, 3rd and then 26th (when he had his problem). In 2022, Reddick finished about 13th in Stage #1, was in 9th on lap 80 but then around lap 100 while running around 15th it was mentioned that he had engine issues and was smelling smoke. On lap 110, Reddick’s race was then over due to an engine failure. In terms of speed over the first two segments prior to his engine issue, Reddick had speed rankings of 8th and 6th. In 2021, Reddick finished an asterisk mark 29th. In the race, Reddick finished 8th in Stage #2, had an 11.6 average running position and was running right around 8th until he got loose in front of Joey Logano during a restart on lap 186 which caused a multi-car wreck. That actually wasn’t a huge setback for Reddick, but after he spun on lap 194 while running in 11th and no caution came out you could stick a fork in him.

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