Michigan FireKeepers 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Michigan is Erik Jones’s home track, but I can’t say I’m expecting much out of him, other than likely a high-teens finish but it can only get worse after that. Michigan is perhaps the purest test for what teams can find speed and I can’t say I have faith in the #43 team right now with their current form. That said, Jones has been pretty solid here and currently has back-to-back top tens so he’ll have upside for those who are willing to just overlook how he’s run in 2024. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Jones is 3 for 3 at finishing in the teens (Back-to-back 19th’s) with his average finish being 17.3 and his track type Total Speed Ranking being 22nd (23rd in all three races).
Michigan Track History – Erik Jones has been pretty solid at Michigan. He’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the top ten in the Next Gen and in 6 of his 11 overall starts he’s finished in the top 13. Over the last two races in the Next Gen, Jones has a 9th place average finish, and his Speed Ranking is 9th. Last year, Jones had a solid showing. In the race, Jones started 25th, had a 13th place average running position and then finished 10th overall. In terms of speed stats, Jones ranked 8th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, , Jones had a strong showing and ran well throughout the event. In the race, Jones started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had an 8.4 average running position and then finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Jones ranked 8th for Green Flag Speed and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In the three races prior to that, Jones had results of 18th (2021), 27th (2020 #2) and 11th (2020 #1).

Michael McDowell
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – At Michigan, Michael McDowell has historically been a 20’s performer. His all-time best finish is a 20th and currently he has 11-straight results in the 20’s. I think that could change though. The #34 team has been running a little better recently and for the season at high-speed intermediate tracks, McDowell has the 17th best Total Speed Ranking and a 17.0 average finish minus Texas where he crashed. I view Kansas to have the most correlation and at that venue, McDowell finished 10th and had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking.
Michigan Track History – As you read above, McDowell has been a 20’s machine at Michigan for an extended period of time and in the Next Gen, his average finish is 26th and his Speed Ranking ranks 28th. Last year, McDowell finished 24th and had a 23.3 average running position. It was just simply a low to mid 20’s afternoon for him. In summer 2022,  McDowell was collected in the early “Competition Caution Restart Big One” and limped home to finish 28th. I’ll note, prior to his demise he showed potential. McDowell started 14th and on lap 21 at the time of the competition caution coming out he was up to 10th. In 2022, McDowell had his best afternoon at MIS. In the race, McDowell finished 20th, had a 17.8 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, McDowell’s race wasn’t incident free. On lap 179 he was running in 14th, but then on lap 186 he was involved in the late multi-car wreck.

Chase Briscoe
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – At Michigan, I think it’s wise to likely have 20’s expectations with Chase Briscoe. The #14 team is at their worst at high-speed intermediates and in 2024 on this track type, Briscoe ranks 18th in terms of speed and minus Texas where he’s just unusually good on the track type he’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 21st to 25th with his average finish being 22.3.
Michigan Track History – At Michigan, Chase Briscoe has finished worse in each new Cup start, so hopefully that trend ends. Last year, Briscoe started 21st, finished around the mid 20’s in Stage #1, finished around the low 20’s in Stage #2 but then early in the last Stage he was caught up in the Bowman restart wreck which knocked out his toe, dooming him to a 31st. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Briscoe ranked 23rd. In 2022, Briscoe had a performance to forget and finished 20th. In the race, Briscoe had a 16th place average running position and the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Briscoe started 21st and finished 11th. That said, his average running position was 21.7 and his Total Speed Ranking was the 20th best. I’ll note, over the final 50 laps the #14 was the 11th fastest car on the track. Late mayhem certainly benefited him. With about 20 laps to go he was back in 20th.

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