On Sunday (or Monday), NASCAR will be returning to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400! MIS is a gigantic 2.0-mile oval, where the surface is smooth, tire wear is minimal, and horsepower is king. In my opinion, Michigan is the purest test to see what teams can find speed. Michigan is the only 2.0-mile oval on the schedule, but I would recommend you look back at who’s been fast overall at high-speed intermediate tracks this season (High Speed Intermediate Track 2024 Total Speed Rankings).

On Saturday, NASCAR held a rain interrupted unified practice session with all 36 cars on the track at the same time. Make sure you check out our Michigan Practice Notes, Michigan 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Michigan Practice Speeds and 10 Lap Averages. 

Check out our Michigan Quick Rankings if you’re in a rush!

Here’s the Michigan Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Michigan Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Michigan Outlook – Kyle Larson is a three-time winner at Michigan and on Sunday in the FireKeepers Casino 400, the #5 will be fast and the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Kyle Larson has been the driver to beat. Larson won at Kansas, won at Las Vegas and also likely would’ve won at Texas if he didn’t lose a wheel under caution while leading. Also for the season at high-speed intermediates, Larson is tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking, has the best Driver Rating, the best average running position and he’s averaged leading 107 laps per race. In practice, the #5 was fast and Larson ranked 2nd for 5 and 10 lap averages. On Sunday if he can avoid trouble, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson is one of the premiere performers at Michigan. He’s a 3-time winner and over the last three races, Larson’s tied for the best average finish (5.0), has the 2nd best Driver Rating and has the 2nd best Average Running Position. Last year, the #5 was strong and Larson finished 5th despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2 but then early in the last Stage following the Bowman caution around lap 130, he pitted twice as a safety precaution thinking the #5 was damaged. Following that, Larson drove up from about 30th to his 5th place finish. In 2022, Larson finished 7th, but I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then during that Stage caution he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the low 20’s. In terms of speed stats from that race, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, the 5th best Green Flag Speed and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led a race high 70 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then finished 3rd overall.
DraftKings $10,700/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading – Michigan Finish Projections, DraftKings Michigan Scoring Projections, FanDuel Michigan Scoring Projections

2) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Michigan Outlook – At Michigan in the Firekeepers Casino 400, put Denny Hamlin on your short list of favorites. Hamlin’s been the premiere performer at MIS in recent races and he’s been a standout performer at high-speed intermediate tracks in 2024. This year on this track type, Hamlin’s tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking, has the 2nd best Driver Rating, the 2nd best average running position and his average finish minus Texas where he probably would’ve won if there wasn’t a late caution and then crashed is 6.0. Hamlin wasn’t a stopwatch standout in practice but I’m confident he’ll be fast and be tough to beat.
Michigan Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is a 2-time Michigan winner who’s performed at a super-elite level. Over the last six Michigan races, Hamlin has 2-runner-ups, he’s finished in the top 6 every race and his average finish is a series best 3.5. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has a pair of 3rd place finishes, the best Next Gen Speed Ranking, he’s tied for the best average running position and his Driver Rating ranks as the 2nd best. To make Hamlin’s pair of 3rd place finishes more impressive, neither race was incident free. Last year, Hamlin was stout and finished 3rd but he very well could’ve been better than his result. In the race, Hamlin finished 8th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 around lap 105 while running in 5th, Hamlin was stalled on pit road and had trouble getting going again which dropped him to the back. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 2nd. In 2022, Hamlin arguably had the best car and ranked #1 in terms of PROS Rankings, but he finished an asterisk mark 3rd. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 5.3 average running position, led 38 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 158 but then during the Bell/Chastain caution, Hamlin got a pit penalty for too many men over the wall, which dropped him back to the high-teens with not much of the race remaining. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best green flag speed, was the fastest driver late in a run and was tied for first in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the four Michigan races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 5th, 2nd, 6th and 2nd.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $13,500

3) Tyler Reddick
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Michigan Outlook – At Michigan, Tyler Reddick will be a contender. Reddick was a factor to win last summer and in 2024 at high-speed intermediates, Reddick’s been one of the premiere performers. This year on this sub-track type, Reddick has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, he’s finished in the top four in 3 of the 4 races, has the 3rd best Driver Rating and the 3rd best average finish (7.5). One attribute you have to like about Reddick is his momentum and over the last six races he has a series best 3.7 average finish. In practice, Reddick had the 4th best 10-lap average.
Michigan Track Record Breakdown – Tyler Reddick has run well at Michigan, but you’ll want to close your eyes when you look at his track record (26th place average finish). Last summer, Reddick had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 30th. In the race, Reddick logged many laps in the final Stage in 2nd but then on lap 158 during green flag pit stops while running in 2nd, Reddick had a loose wheel following his pit stop which led to a long, unexpected pit stop which dropped him 3 laps down. In the race, Reddick had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking but take note his speed over the segments were 9th, 6th, 3rd and then 26th (when he had his problem). In 2022, Reddick finished about 13th in Stage #1, was in 9th on lap 80 but then around lap 100 while running around 15th it was mentioned that he had engine issues and was smelling smoke. On lap 110, Reddick’s engine finally blew up. In terms of speed over the first two segments prior to his engine issue, Reddick had speed rankings of 8th and 6th.
DraftKings $9,600/ FanDuel $12,500