Daytona Coke Zero 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Kyle Larson
Daytona Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson has a really bad superspeedway racing reputation, and he’s been especially bad in the Daytona summer race as you’ll read below. Larson has just been a magnet for trouble in this particular race and picking him is like playing with fire. There are other weeks to pick Larson, and this is one where it’s best to avoid him like the plague. Larson could perhaps dodge trouble, but his track record doesn’t suggest its likely.
Daytona Track History – Daytona hasn’t been a bright spot on the schedule for Kyle Larson and summer races have been especially brutal. In summer Daytona races, Larson has finished 20th or worse in 8 of his 9 races, and in 6 of them he’s finished 27th or worse. In the Next Gen over the last five Daytona races, Larson has four results of 18th or worse and a 25th place average finish. In February, Kyle Larson really liked his car, and he was quite racy. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, led 7 laps, earned the 8th best Driver Rating, had the 9th best Average Running Position and then finished 11th. Last summer, Larson crashed during the last lap of Stage #2 and went on to finish 27th. In the 2023 Daytona 500, Larson nearly won but right at the end he crashed which led to his 18th. In the race, Larson had an 11th place average running position, led 6 laps and was running in 2nd at the time of the final restart for overtime. In summer 2022, Larson’s engine blew up on lap 4 and he finished 37th. In the 2022 Daytona 500, Larson started on the pole, led 1 lap, finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 13th place average running position, was running in 11th on lap 189 but then on lap 190 he was caught up in a multi-car accident that led to his asterisk mark 32nd.

Austin Dillon
Daytona Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon has two Daytona wins on his resume and he’ll be operating in “Hail Mary Mode” since it’s his only path to the Playoffs. Daytona has historically been Dillon’s best track, and in 41% of his starts he’s finished in the top ten. I’ll note, Dillon has become quite a prolific crashing machine at big superspeedways and since 2023 on this track type, Dillon’s 6 for 6 at finishing in the 30’s and has a series worst 34.2 average finish.
Daytona Track History – Austin Dillon is a two-time winner at Daytona and it ranks as one of his best tracks but over the last three races since his summer 2022 win, Dillon’s 3 for 3 at crashing and finishing 33rd or worse. Overall in 7 of the last 10 Daytona races, Dillon’s finished 18th or worse. In this year’s 500, Dillon was collected in the lap 5 “Big One”, and you could stick a fork in him after that and he went on to finish 37th. Last year, Dillon went 2 for 2 at wrecking and finishing 33rd. Last summer, Dillon met his demise while running in 15th in the “Blaney/Gibbs Big One” on the last lap of Stage #2. In the 2023 Daytona 500, it looked like Austin Dillon would push teammate, Kyle Busch to victory lane but a late caution while running in 2nd led to him getting shuffled out of line and then wrecking (33rd). In 2022, Dillon won in the summer and then had a dud performance in the Daytona 500 and finished 25th.

Todd Gilliland
Daytona Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland is a capable superspeedway racer, but Daytona has been brutal and he’s yet to have an incident free race. Gilliland’s 5 for 5 at DNF’ing and his average finish is 30.0. That said, Gilliland’s shown potential, even placing in 40% of the opening Stages in the Next Gen but of course, results are ultimately what matter. At Talladega the other big superspeedway on the schedule, Gilliland finished 8th this spring and over the last four there he’s finished in the top 12 every race and has a 9.25 average finish.
Daytona Track History – Close your eyes when you look at Todd Gilliland’s Daytona track record. He’s yet to crack the top 20 and his average finish is 30th! Next to all five of his really bad results you’ll see “Accident, overheating, accident, accident, and accident.” To start the season at Daytona, Todd Gilliland was a top ten contender but crashed late and finished 35th. In the race, Gilliland led 16 laps, was in 9th on lap 190 but then on lap 191 he was caught up in the “Big One” which led to his poor result. Last summer in his only non-accident race, Gilliland finished 32nd due to “overheating” after completing a very uncompetitive 131 laps. In the 2023 Daytona 500, Gilliland finished 10th in Stage #1, was running in 21st on lap 198 but then shortly after that he was caught up in the “Overtime #1 Big One”, leading to his 27th. In summer 2022, Gilliland finished 6th in Stage #2, had a 15.2 average running position but was collected in the “Rain Big One” while running around 17th which led to his 23rd. In the 2022 Daytona 500, Gilliland finished 3rd in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, had a 14th place average running position but then finished 33rd. On lap 189 he was running in 13th but then the next lap he crashed.

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