Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions/ The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. might sneak in a respectable result. Stenhouse has been solid at Darlington in the Next Gen and in 3 of the 5 races he’s finished between 8th to 16th. I can’t say I would feel comfortable thinking he can pull that off again, but he might. Stenhouse has also been running better recently so there’s hope.
Darlington Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been solid in the results column at Darlington in recent races. In the Next Gen minus fall 2022 his average finish is 15.0 and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 19th. This spring, Stenhouse just wasn’t good. In the race, Stenhouse finished 23rd and had a 27.6 average running position. In 2023, Stenhouse had a pair of teen finishes with his average finish being 14.5 for the season. Last fall, Stenhouse finished 16th and had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Stenhouse had a solid showing. In the race, Stenhouse finished 13th, was tied for the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and had an 11.3 average running position. To make his finish even more impressive, take note he had a flat tire and spun while running in 9th early in the last Stage and got a speeding penalty during green flag pit stops around lap 250. In fall 2022, Stenhouse had problems early and finished 35th. In spring 2022, Stenhouse finished 8th courtesy of attrition but take note he had a 17.1 average running position and the 17th best Total Speed Ranking.

Harrison Burton
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, I think it’s wise to view Playoff driver Harrison Burton as a 20’s driver who might have roll of the dice upside. I’ll note, Burton has only finished worse than 22nd once but I also think he’s worse than ever before. In the Next Gen at Darlington, Burton ranks 28th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings and his average finish minus last fall is 15.75.
Darlington Track History – For whatever reason, Darlington hasn’t been a disaster for Harrison Burton, and it actually ranks as one of his better venues by his low standards. This spring, Burton started 35th, had a 27.5 average running position and then finished 22nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Burton ranked 30th. Last fall, Burton looked poised to come home with a respectable result, but he crashed late. With 50 to go he was running in 13th but then the next lap he crashed which led to his 35th. It was a legit solid showing for Burton and he ran well throughout the final Stage until his demise. Last spring, Burton finished 6th but that’s a fool’s gold result. “Performance Wise”, I would say Burton was realistically a mid-teens driver. In the race, Burton had a 13.1 average running position, ranked 13th for speed late in a run and then 15th for Total Speed Rankings. On lap 278 before late mayhem kicked into gear, Burton was running in 16th. In 2022, Burton had results of 21st and 14th.

Ryan Preece
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington, Ryan Preece might actually have upside for those bold enough to pick him. Preece finished 17th this spring and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished between 12th to 17th. I can’t say I like Preece to finish in that range again but he’s already done it a few times. At Darlington over his 9-starts, Preece has a 21.7 average finish. On Sunday, I would view him as a 20’s driver who’ll have marginal upside.
Darlington Track History – As you read above, Ryan Preece has finished between 12th to 17th in 3 of the last 4 Darlington races. This spring, Preece finished 17th, had a 24.9 average running position and had the 26th best Speed Ranking. Late in the race, Preece was at his best. Last fall, Preece never ran well and then finished a clunker 28th. In the race, Preece had the 29th best Total Speed Ranking and a 32.2 average running position. In spring 2023, Preece finished 15th. Additionally, Preece had a 21.6 average running position and ranked 24th for Total Speed Rankings. To close out the race, Preece ran well. On lap 266 before late chaos, Preece was legitimately in 12th.

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