Darlington Southern 500 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Tyler Reddick
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – At Darlington in the Southern 500, look for Tyler Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Reddick’s been flirting with victory lane in recent races, and I think he has a great chance to take home the trophy. Reddick was arguably the best this spring and then in 3 of the 4 races prior to that, Reddick finished in either 2nd or 3rd. Since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Reddick’s tied for having the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking. The high-line is the fast-line and Reddick’s one of the premiere performers at running that groove.
Darlington Track History – Tyler Reddick has been stout at Darlington and in the Next Gen, Reddick has the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating, the 2nd best Average Running Position and then a 12.8 average finish which underrates him. This spring, Reddick was the class of the field. In the race, Reddick started on the pole, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 174 laps but then finished an asterisk mark 32nd after colliding with Chris Buescher on lap 264 while battling for the lead. In terms of speed, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, the #45 was fast and Reddick finished runner-up. In the race, Reddick started 3rd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a race best 2.6 average running position and led 90 laps. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Reddick finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 11th in Stage #2, was running in 8th on lap 278 but then during the ensuing restart, he was collected in the carnage which led to his asterisk mark 22nd. In 2022, Reddick had results of 2nd and 3rd.

Kyle Larson
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Larson’s the defending fall winner and in many of the recent races, he’s been a factor. Over Larson’s last five incident free Darlington races, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top 3. In the Southern 500, Larson always brings his A-game and going back to 2015 over his eight races in this particular event, Larson has 1-win, five results in the top 3 and a series best 5.9 average finish. At high-wear intermediates, Larson is one of the best and since 2023 on this sub-track type, Larson ranks 3rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Darlington Track History – Kyle Larson is one of the premiere performers at Darlington. Larson’s the defending Southern 500 champ and he’s been especially good in this particular race. In the Next Gen over the last five, Larson has the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and the 6th best Driver Rating. This spring, Larson was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson started 6th, won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 15 laps but then in the last Stage his afternoon went south. On lap 235 while running in 3rd, Larson tagged the wall hard and then immediately came to pit road. Then shortly after that on lap 253 while running in 6th, Larson had a flat tire and crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th. In 2023, Larson could’ve pulled out the broom for the season. Last fall, Larson started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 4.5 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating, led 55 laps, and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Larson might’ve just had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the final green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader and was the driver to beat until late mayhem ensued. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 7th, 2nd and then 1st.

Denny Hamlin
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin has been a dominant performer at Darlington who’s always tough to beat. Hamlin’s a 4-time winner who’s finished in the top five 54% of the time, in the top ten 71% of the time and he has the best average finish in the series (8.3). Tire management is key, and I would argue Hamlin’s the premiere performer at that discipline. This year over the high-tire wear tracks visited (Darlington, Bristol and Richmond’s), Hamlin has 2-wins and a 2.0 average finish. Since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Hamlin has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, the 3rd best Driver Rating and the 3rd best average running position. On Sunday night, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington. Hamlin’s had asterisk mark results in 3 of the 5 Next Gen races, but he hasn’t lacked when it comes to “Performance.” Despite having quite a few problems in the Next Gen, Hamlin still has the 3rd best Driver Rating, the 3rd best average running position and the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. This spring, Hamlin wasn’t his usual competitive self, but he still finished 4th. Additionally, Hamlin had an 8.3 average running position and the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Hamlin was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 25th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 177 laps but in the last Stage while leading (just before the green flag pit cycle), Hamlin had a loose wheel and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap back to 30th. Later, Hamlin was also involved in an accident on lap 331, but he was way back in the mid 20’s at that time anyways. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin finished 12th but personally, I wouldn’t read into his afternoon too much. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 he radioed his team that his car took off on him and he got into the wall. In fall 2022, Hamlin was a factor and finished 2nd. Additionally, Hamlin had a 5.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 6 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Hamlin was top five good but finished an asterisk mark 21st after multiple problems in the last Stage derailed his afternoon. In 2021, Hamlin had results of 1st and 5th.

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