Darlington Southern 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday night under the lights, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington in the Southern 500 to mark the regular season finale. Desperate drivers do desperate things, so look for the intensity to go up a dial or two.

Darlington is a unique 1.33-mile egg shaped oval where tire wear is extreme, and the driver is a difference maker. Often times at Darlington, you’ll see the same drivers finish up front, since this race is in the drivers hands more than others.

On Saturday, practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s. Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes, Darlington Practice Speed Cheat Sheet and Darlington Practice Speeds & 10 Lap Averages. 

Here’s a look at how Drivers stacked up in Group A and Group B (MUST LOOK).

If you’re in a rush, check out our Darlington “Quick Rankings!”

Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Darlington Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Tyler Reddick
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – On Sunday night in the Southern 500, the road to victory lane might very well go thru Tyler Reddick. Reddick’s been flirting with victory lane in many of the recent races, and I think he has a great chance to take home the trophy. Reddick was arguably the best this spring and in 3 of the 4 Darlington races prior to that, Reddick finished in either 2nd or 3rd. This year at intermediate tracks, Reddick ranks 2nd in terms of speed and at high-wear intermediate tracks going back to 2023, he ranks 3rd. In practice, Reddick liked his car and had the best 10-lap average in Group A.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer at Darlington and in the Next Gen, Reddick has the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating, the 2nd best Average Running Position and a 12.8 average finish, which underrates him. This spring, Reddick was the class of the field. In the race, Reddick started on the pole, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 174 laps but then finished an asterisk mark 32nd after colliding with Chris Buescher on lap 264 while battling for the lead. In terms of speed, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Reddick finished runner-up. In the race, Reddick started 3rd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a race best 2.6 average running position and led 90 laps. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Reddick finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 11th in Stage #2, was running in 8th on lap 278 but then during the ensuing restart, he was collected in the carnage which led to his asterisk mark 22nd. In 2022, Reddick had results of 2nd and 3rd.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $13,500

Further Recommended Reading – Darlington Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Darlington Scoring Projections, FanDuel Darlington Scoring Projections 

2) Kyle Larson
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Darlington who should prominently be on your short list of favorites. Larson’s the defending fall winner and in many of the recent races, he’s been in contention. Over Larson’s last five incident free Darlington races, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top 3. In Darlington Southern 500’s, Larson always brings his A-game and going back to 2015 (8 races for him), Larson has 1-win, five results in the top 3 and a series best 5.9 average finish. In Group A, Larson had the 2nd best 15-lap average.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson is one of the premiere performers at Darlington who’s always a factor. Larson’s the defending Southern 500 champ and he’s been especially good in this particular race as you read above. In the Next Gen, Larson hasn’t lacked for speed and has the 3rd best Darlington Next Gen Speed Ranking. This spring, Larson was a top five performer but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 15 laps but then in the last Stage his afternoon went south. On lap 235 while running in 3rd, Larson tagged the wall hard and then immediately came to pit road. Then shortly after that on lap 253 while running in 6th, Larson had a flat tire and crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th. In 2023, Larson could’ve pulled out the broom for the season. Last fall, Larson started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 4.5 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating, led 55 laps, and raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Larson might’ve just had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the last green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader but then a late caution brought him back to the field. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead.
DraftKings $10,700/ FanDuel $14,000

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 14th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’s always tough to beat. Hamlin’s a 4-time winner who’s finished in the top TWO 33% of the time, in the top five 54% of the time, in the top ten 71% of the time and he has the best average finish in the series (8.3). Tire management is key, and I would argue Hamlin’s the premiere performer at that discipline. This year over the high-tire wear tracks visited (Darlington, Bristol and Richmond), Hamlin has 2-wins and a 2.0 average finish. Since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Hamlin ranks 3rd in terms of Driver Rating, Speed Ranking and Average Running Position. In Group A, Hamlin had the best 15-lap average.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin has thrived at Darlington. Hamlin’s had asterisk mark results in 3 of the 5 Next Gen races, but he hasn’t lacked when it comes to “Performance.” Despite having quite a few problems in the Next Gen, Hamlin still has the 3rd best Driver Rating, the 3rd best average running position and the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. This spring, Hamlin was a little off but he still finished 4th. Additionally, Hamlin had an 8.3 average running position and the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Hamlin was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 25th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 177 laps but in the last Stage while leading (just after the green flag pit cycle), Hamlin had a loose wheel and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap back to 30th. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin finished 12th but personally, I wouldn’t read into that result too much. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 he radioed his team that he got into the wall. In fall 2022, Hamlin was a factor and finished 2nd. Additionally, Hamlin had a 5.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 6 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Hamlin was top five good but finished an asterisk mark 21st after multiple problems in the last Stage derailed his afternoon. In 2021, Hamlin had results of 1st and 5th.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,000