Atlanta Quaker State 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Qualifying Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Atlanta for the Quaker State 400 which will mark the start of the 2024 Playoffs. This will be race #6 on the new superspeedway configuration, so don’t look any further back then 2022. I think the best approach for evaluating drivers this weekend is to study the last five Atlanta races, and then just note “General Superspeedway Racing Prowess.”
No practice was held for Atlanta. Qualifying was held on Saturday and here’s the Atlanta Starting Lineup.
In a hurry, check out our Atlanta “Quick Rankings.”
Atlanta Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Ryan Blaney
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Atlanta Outlook – Ryan Blaney is arguably the premiere superspeedway performer in NASCAR and at Atlanta, Blaney will be tough to beat as he formally begins his title defense. Blaney was a standout performer this spring, was one of the best in both 2023 races and over all five, he’s 5 for 5 at being a top five contender. In the Next Gen era at superspeedways over all the combined races, Blaney has the best average finish, the best Driver Rating and the best average running position.
Atlanta Track Record Breakdown – Ryan Blaney has been the premiere performer at Atlanta. Blaney hasn’t visited victory lane, but he nearly won this spring and he’s been a top five contender every race. Over the five combined races, Blaney has the best average finish (8.0), the best average running position and the best driver rating. This spring, Blaney was a standout performer and nearly raced his way to victory lane but finished 2nd after getting inched at the finish line. Additionally, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had the best average running position (6.6), earned the best Driver Rating and led the 3rd most laps (31). Last summer, Blaney was arguably the best. In the race, Blaney won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage # 2, led 20 laps, had the best average running position (4.8), earned the best driver rating but then finished a misleading 9th. Blaney pitted during the Stage #2 caution (was in 2nd) which dropped him back to the high teens, with not much race left after that before the rain fell. In spring 2023, Blaney had a great car and rallied to finish 7th. That result is extremely impressive when you consider Blaney got a speeding penalty on lap 135 while running in 3rd, which dropped him two laps down. In Stage #1 prior to that, Blaney finished 4th. In summer 2022, Blaney finished 5th and had a 5.5 average running position. In spring 2022, Blaney won Stage #2, led 15 laps, had the 2nd best average running position (8.1) but finished an asterisk mark 17th. At the start of the final lap while running in 4th, the #12 got into the wall which had Blaney fading back to his 17th.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading = Atlanta Finish Projections, DraftKings Atlanta Scoring Projections, FanDuel Atlanta Scoring Projections
2) Kyle Busch
Start 15th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6/ Dominator Potential – Medium
Atlanta Outlook – Kyle Busch is in “Trophy Hunting Mode” and at Atlanta, he’ll be going all out and be a factor. Busch is an elite superspeedway performer, and he nearly raced his way to victory lane this spring. Over the last three Atlanta races, Busch is tied for having the best average finish (6.0) and he’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten. This year at superspeedways, Busch has been a standout performer and over the combined races he has the best average finish (10.8), the best Driver Rating and the 2nd best average running position.
Atlanta Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Busch is one of the best at Atlanta and over the last three, he’s tied with Blaney for being the best via average finish (6.0). This spring, the#8 was fast, and Busch finished 3rd, coming to the finish line 3-wide. In the race, Busch led 28 laps and had the 5th best Driver Rating. The #8 looked great, and Busch really liked how his car performed. Last summer, Busch played the pit strategy game and snuck in a 5th, despite having an 18.9 average running position and finishing around 23rd in Stage #2. In spring 2023, Busch finished 10th but take note his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Busch finished 7th in Stage #1, about mid-teens in Stage #2 but then on lap 189 he was involved in the “Harvick” crash and spun. The #8 appeared pretty unscathed from that though. When the checkered flag waved, Busch finished 10th, had an 11.2 average running position and led 7 laps.
DraftKings $8,800/ FanDuel $11,000
3) Brad Keselowski
Start 19th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Atlanta Outlook – Brad Keselowski is a super-elite superspeedway performer who’ll have a fast Ford and be tough to beat. The #6 has been a standout at superspeedways in 2024 with Keselowski being a factor every race. At Atlanta, Keselowski was fast this spring, a standout performer in both 2023 races so there’s no reason to think he’ll be a letdown.
Atlanta Track Record Breakdown – Brad Keselowski has been elite at Atlanta and over the last three races, he’s been top five good “Performance Wise.” This spring, Keselowski was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 33rd. In the race, Keselowski finished 7th in Stage #2, ran a lot of the last Stage in the top five but then on lap 219 while running in 3rd, he got loose and got into the wall hard. Last year, nobody was better and between the combined races, Keselowski had the best average finish (4.0). Last summer, Keselowski had a rocket. In the race, Keselowski led 19 laps, won Stage #2 which is a great barometer for performance, pitted during the Stage #2 caution which dropped him back to the high-teens and then he rallied to finish 6th when the rain fell. In spring 2023, Keselowski finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 5.2 average running position and led 47 laps. I’ll note, 29 of those laps came in the final 30 laps before getting passed on the last lap by Logano.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $13,000
