Watkins Glen Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Watkins Glen for the “Go Bowling At The Glen!” Watkins Glen is a high-speed road course where drivers really get up on the wheel and race aggressively. Some have described Watkins Glen as the “Intermediate Track Of Road Courses.”

On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams had 40 minutes (two sets of 20-minutes), and always keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Watkins Glen Practice Notes, Watkins Glen Practice 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Watkins Glen Group A & B Speed Rankings. 

Here’s Watkins Glen Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup. Take note, starting up front at Watkins Glen has been a huge advantage and 12 of the last 13 winners have started between 1st to 6th. In the Next Gen, the winner has won from 2nd twice.

Watkins Glen Full Field Rankings

1) Kyle Larson 
Start 20th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Watkins Glen Outlook – Kyle Larson is a 5-time road course winner and at Watkins Glen, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him despite starting 20th. At “The Glen”, Larson’s won 2 of his 3 races in the #5 and over all three, he’s been a top 3 “Performer.” At Sonoma the most recent “Traditional” Road Course visited, Larson raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion, driving up thru the field at the end.
Watkins Glen Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer at Watkins Glen. Larson’s won 2 of the last 3 races and since 2018 minus last year where he got a costly speeding penalty, Larson’s average finish is 4th! Last year, Larson was a top 3 performer, but he finished an asterisk mark 26th. In the race, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 but then in the last Stage on lap 55 while running in 3rd during green flag pit stops, he was caught speeding on pit road. Then on the last lap while battling for 19th, Larson spun out Austin Dillon and himself in the process. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th with his speed over the segments being 6th, 1st, 14th and then 19th. In 2022, Larson had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after body slamming Chase Elliott during the final restart for the lead. In addition to winning, Larson led 5 laps, had a 7.7 average running position and had the fastest car over the final quarter of the race. In 2021, Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 27 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the two races prior to that, Larson had results of 8th and 6th.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $13,500

Further Recommended Reading = Watkins Glen “Quick Rankings”, Watkins Glen Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Watkins Glen Scoring Projections, FanDuel Watkins Glen Scoring Projections

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 2nd/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Watkins Glen Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t had a top five finish since Kansas, but I think he could be a contender at Watkins Glen, he just needs to break out ALL the good luck charms to avoid bad luck. Truex is one of the best in the business here and since 2016 minus 2022, Truex has 1-win, a 3.5 average finish, and he’s had a result in the top 7 every race. A new tire is being used this weekend that is high-wear, and that’s a plus for Truex. Since 2023 at “Traditional” Road Courses, Truex has the 5th best Speed Ranking. This year between the two “Traditional Road Courses” visited, Truex finished 10th at COTA, and he was on pace to finish 2nd at Sonoma until he ran out of gas. On Sunday, Truex will start in 2nd. In the Next Gen, the winner is 2 for 2 at starting in this position.
Watkins Glen Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Watkins Glen. Truex is a former winner (2017) and in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top 7. Over that stretch minus 2022 where he was junk, Truex has a 3.5 average finish. Last year, Truex started 19th but raced his way up to a 6th place finish. In the race, the #19 got better as the race progressed and Truex’s speeds over the segments were 15th, 14th, 10th and then 2nd. In 2022 when JGR was down on speed at road courses across the board, Truex never liked his car and finished 23rd. In 2021, Truex won Stage #2, led a race high 34 laps, had a race best 3.5 average running position and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 2nd. In the three races prior to that, Truex had results of 2nd, 2nd and 1st.
DraftKings $8,600/ FanDuel $9,500

3) William Byron
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Watkins Glen Outlook – Defending Watkins Glen champ, William Byron should be high on your radar. Byron put on a display of domination last year and I think the #24 team has a good chance to repeat. The Hendrick camp hasn’t lost here since 2018 with all of the winners, winning back-to-back so naturally he’s up again. When it comes to road course racing, Byron has become one of the best default picks you can make and since Watkins Glen 2023 minus Sonoma 2024, Byron has 2-wins, a 3.0 average finish and in 3 of the 4 races he’s finished in the top 2. This spring at COTA, Byron finished 1st, had the best Speed Ranking and had a near perfect driver rating.
Watkins Glen Track Record Breakdown – William Byron has been strong at Watkins Glen. Byron smoked the field and easily raced his way to victory lane last summer and in 3 of his 5 races, he’s finished in the top 8. Last year, Byron put on a display of domination en route to victory lane. In the race, Byron finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 66 laps, had a 1.3 average running position and earned a near perfect driver rating. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Byron finished a clunker 22nd in what simply wasn’t a good race that he started in the back. In 2021, Byron finished 6th, had the 6th best Driver Rating and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $13,000