Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Kansas who’ll be tough to beat. Larson raced his way to victory lane this spring and over the last three Kansas races his average finish is a series best 2.3. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has been the class of the field. In 2024 at these venues, Larson won here, won at Las Vegas and he might’ve just won at Texas too if he literally didn’t lose a wheel while leading under caution. In terms of 2024 high-speed 1.5-mile track Total Speed Rankings, Larson is tied with Hamlin for being #1.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level and in the Next Gen, Larson has the 2nd best average finish (3.2), the best average running position (6.4) and the best driver rating. This spring, Larson clobbered the competition and came up clutch, racing his way to victory lane with a last lap pass. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 2.8 average running position, led 63 laps and earned the best driver rating. Before the late caution came out, Larson looked poised to finish around 3rd. Last fall, Larson had a hot rod and finished 4th but I would make a case he was better than his finish. Around the midpoint while he was in 2nd and on old tires, Larson had a super bad restart which dropped him back to about 20th. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, led the most laps (99) and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Larson had the race all but won until Denny Hamlin dumped him on the last lap while leading. In the race, Larson led 85 laps, ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Larson had results of 2nd and 8th.

Denny Hamlin
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin has been a super-elite performer at Kansas and on Sunday, the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. Over the last three Kansas races, Hamlin’s ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings every race and he also would likely be 3 for 3 in the win column if not for late cautions in the last two. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin is tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking and minus Texas where he likely would’ve won before late chaos broke out (crashed), his average finish is 6.0.
Kansas Track History – Denny Hamlin is a 4-time Kansas winner who’s been the premiere performer in the Next Gen. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has 1-win, a 2.8 average finish, the best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating and he’s the only driver who’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top five. “Performance Wise” over the last three, Hamlin could easily be 3 for 3 at winning. This spring, Hamlin was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 5th. In the race, Hamlin started 14th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 71 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and had a 6.3 average running position. If the late caution didn’t come out, Hamlin was poised to win. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, nobody was better and if there wasn’t a late caution last fall, he would’ve had a season sweep. Last fall, Hamlin started 14th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 63 laps and had a 2.22 second lead just before the late caution came out with about 8 to go. That led to Hamlin restarting in 6th during the final restart and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, the #11 was fast and Hamlin raced his way to victory lane after sending Larson into the wall on the last lap. In the race, Hamlin earned the best driver rating, had a race best 3.6 average running position and led 34 laps. In 2022, Hamlin had finishes of 2nd and 4th.

Tyler Reddick
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – At Kansas, look for last fall’s winner, Tyler Reddick to be fast and be a contender. Reddick wasn’t that great this spring but overall in 2024 at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been a standout performer. Reddick recently won at Michigan, has the best average finish (6.2), the 2nd best Driver Rating and he’s tied for having the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking.
Kansas Track History – Tyler Reddick is the defending Kansas fall winner, but it hasn’t been that great of a track for him overall in terms of the results column and in 3 of the last 5 races, he’s finished 20th or worse. That said in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Reddick ranks 6th. This spring, Reddick finished 20th but I wouldn’t say he was that bad. In the race, Reddick was just off but he did finish 8th in Stage #2, had a 12.5 average running position and had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking. I would chalk it up to Reddick just not being at his best late and over the 4th segment of the race, he ranked 25th in terms of speed. Last fall, Reddick had a hot rod and raced his way to victory lane taking advantage of a late restart. In the race, Reddick finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.0 average running position and led a grand total of 2-laps, which were the last two. I’ll note, before the late caution came out, Reddick was running in 2nd, 2.22 seconds behind Denny Hamlin. Last spring, Reddick was strong and finished 9th. Additionally, Reddick led 23 laps, had an 8.3 average running position and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Reddick was strong in both races and showed top 5 potential but was 2 for 2 at finishing in the 30’s. In fall 2022, Reddick started on the pole, led 38 laps, but then on lap 65 while leading, Reddick got into the wall hard, and his race was then over which led to his 35th. In spring 2022, Reddick was a top five contender but finished a misleading 30th. In the race, Reddick led 24 laps, finished 4th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 113 while running in 4th, he had debris on his grill and then slammed into the wall. A few laps later, he slammed into it again which led to an unexpected pit stop, ruining his afternoon.

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