Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones had a great performance at Kansas last fall in his most recent race but with how the #43 is running right now, I think it’s best to view him as a teens driver who’ll likely burn you. This year at high-speed intermediates, Jones has a 17.0 average finish and the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking. Michigan has correlation and Jones recently finished 16th there.
Kansas Track History – Erik Jones has had some success at Kansas and since 2018 he’s either finished in the top ten (6 top tens) or he’s finished 20th or worse (6 results of 20th or worse). This spring, Jones missed the race due to injury and in his place, Corey Heim finished 22nd. Last fall, Jones had a stellar showing. In the race, Jones finished 6th in Stage #2 and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, he was in 6th before the late caution came out. Additionally, Jones had a 9.4 average running position and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Jones finished 21st, had a 21.6 average running position and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2022, Jones struggled and finished 29th. Additionally, Jones had a 22.9 average running position and the 30th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Jones looked sporty and showed potential but finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Jones finished 8th in Stage #1 (used some late pit strategy in Stage #1), but then his afternoon went south right after that. During the Stage #1 caution, Jones was penalized for pitting before pit road was open and at that time, he also had his long stop where he fell back 7-laps as his team tried desperately to get off his wheel.

Justin Haley
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley has frequently finished around 20th at Kansas in recent races so hopefully he’ll extend that streak and keep the good times going. Over the last three races held at high-speed intermediates this season, Haley has results of 18th (Kansas), 22nd (Charlotte) and then 20th (Michigan). On Sunday, Haley will be making his Spire debut. This is a long-term gain but it might not be a plus in week #1.
Kansas Track History – Justin Haley has been consistent at Kansas. Over the last four races he’s started 27th or worse and then over them he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 18th to 21st with a 19th place average finish. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings over the last five, Haley ranks 25th. This spring in the #51, Haley started 35th, had a 22.7 average running position, had the 23rd best Speed Ranking and then finished 18th. Last year in his former ride, Haley’s finishes were 21st (fall) and 18th (spring).

Zane Smith
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith has had an uptick in performance, but I can’t say I feel good about him at Kansas, and he’s likely poised to be a +20 driver. That said, Smith did finish 7th at Michigan (24th best speed ranking) so there’s hope. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Smith’s 4 for 4 at finishing 26th or worse and has a 30.7 average finish. Over the last 11 races heading into the weekend, Smith’s 15.7 average finish ranks as the 10th best in the series, and that’s my primary hope for upside.
Kansas Track History – Zane Smith had a clunker showing this spring at Kansas. In the race, Smith finished 29th, had a 25th place average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. In the Truck series, Smith won here in spring 2022 and over his last five races his average finish was 4th.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier