Talladega YellaWood 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Justin Haley
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley is a solid superspeedway option for his tier at Talladega who’ll have boosted upside courtesy of the draft/attrition. Haley had a tough afternoon this spring but over the four Talladega races prior to that his average finish was a respectable 13th. In the Xfinity series at Talladega, Haley’s a 2-time winner.
Talladega Track History – Justin Haley has been respectable at Talladega and over the four races prior to this spring his average finish was 13th. This spring, Haley had a tough race and finished 34th. In the race, Haley finished around 25th in Stage #2 but then early in the last Stage, Haley spun and was then stuck in the grass for an extended period of time which dropped him a few laps down, dooming his afternoon. Last fall in his best Talladega performance to date, Haley finished 6th. It was a performance where when the laps counted down, he navigated his way to the front. Last spring, Haley didn’t have a great race and finished 19th. Additionally, Haley had a 19.2 average running position and was running in 20th with 6 laps to go until the scheduled distance. In 2022, Haley had finishes of 12th and 15th.

Kyle Larson
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Picking Kyle Larson at Talladega isn’t for the faint of heart, and the odds say something “bad” is likely looming. Larson’s had major problems in 6 of his last 12 races here, and since 2019 minus spring 2022 (finished abnormally good in 4th), Larson’s average finish is 26.6. For his career at Talladega over his 19 starts, Larson has just 1 top five, 3 top tens and a 22.8 average finish. At big superspeedways since 2023, Larson has a 21st place average finish.
Talladega Track History – Talladega has been like a buzz saw for Kyle Larson in the results department and in 4 of his last 8 races he’s finished 33rd or worse. I’ll note in quite a few of the recent races he’s been pretty solid despite what you’ll see in the results column. This spring, Larson started in the back, served a pass thru penalty at the start, got lapped on lap 12, finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then finished 21st when the checkered flag waved. Larson was just a non-factor in closing time and his average running position for the afternoon was also 21st. I’ll note he was in 14th with 2 to go, so he did fall back some late. Last fall, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a race best 8.3 average running position but then finished 15th when the checkered flag waved. Coming to the finish line he was running in 8th but then he crashed. Last spring, Larson didn’t look bad but as is norm, he crashed which led to his 33rd. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, was running in 6th before the start of overtime but then shortly after a restart in overtime, Larson was collected in Chastain caused carnage. In 2022, Larson actually looked pretty good in both races. In fall 2022, Larson finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 10.9 average running position, led 8 laps but then in the last Stage for whatever reason, he just wasn’t at his best. With 9 to go, Larson was in 17th and when the checkered flag waved, he finished 18th. In spring 2022, Larson had a lucky charm or something and looked great. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a race best 4.8 average running position and then finished 4th overall. In his four races prior to that, Larson had results of 37th, 40th, 39th and 24th.

Daniel Hemric
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – If you’re looking to pick Daniel Hemric, Talladega is the place. Hemric’s been at his best at big superspeedways and for the season on this track type his 11.3 average finish ranks as the 2nd best. Also in 2024 at big superspeedways, Hemric’s finished in the top ten twice and he’s had a result in the top 16 every race.
Talladega Track History – At Talladega over his five starts, Daniel Hemric has two top tens and then in his other three starts he’s finished 21st or worse. This spring, Hemric finished 9th, led 8 laps, had a 15.9 average running position but take note he was back in 24th with two laps to go, so late wildness was a boost. Back in 2022 in the #16, Hemric had a pair of 30’s finishes, finishing 34th in the fall (electrical) and 36th (crash) in the spring. Back in 2019 when he was a full-time racer in the #8, Hemric had finishes of 21st (fall) and 5th (spring).

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