Las Vegas South Point 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – At Las Vegas, I would view Erik Jones as a mid to high-teens driver but lean towards the higher end of that range. 2024 has been a tough year for the #43 team, but Jones has had some of his better afternoons at high-speed 1.5’s where for the season minus Kansas #2 his average finish is 17.3.
Las Vegas Track History – At Las Vegas in the Next Gen, Erik Jones has a 20th place average finish and ranks 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. This spring, Jones had a pretty good race by his 2024 standards and for the afternoon, he finished 14th, earned the 20th best Driver Rating and had a 21.7 average running position. Last fall, Jones finished 28th but that’s an asterisk mark result. On lap 65 while running in 15th, Jones had a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap and back into the 30’s. After that, his competitive afternoon was over. In spring 2023, Jones finished 19th, had a 14.7 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2022, Jones started way back in 22nd, had a 14.1 average running position but raced his way up to an 8th place finish. Closing out the race, the #43 was at its best and over the final quarter of the race, they ranked as the 7th fastest car on the track. In spring 2022, Jones was poised to finish around 7th, and he was running in that position with 4 to go, but then the next lap he had a flat tire and spun which led to his asterisk mark 31st. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 14th.

Ryan Preece
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – There’s every reason to pencil in Ryan Preece for a 20’s finish at Las Vegas, but he might just have some upside. Over the last two races held at high-speed intermediate tracks, Preece has finishes of 16th (Kansas, 16th best Speed Ranking) and 11th (Michigan), so perhaps the #41 team has found sound something. For the season at high-speed 1.5’s, Preece has a 21.0 average finish and ranks 33rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Las Vegas Track History – Las Vegas hasn’t been a great track for Ryan Preece and over his three starts in the #41, he’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 23rd to 26th, has a 24.0 average finish and a 24.4 average running position. This spring, Preece started in the back in a backup car, finished 23rd, had a 25.7 average running position and ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, Preece had another uncompetitive performance, finishing 26th, having a 24.1 average running position and ranking 29th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Preece finished 23rd.

Daniel Hemric 
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – At Las Vegas, look for Daniel Hemric to finish around 20th. I’m not saying he’ll perform 20th place good but after all the carnage settles, I think that’s where we’ll find him in the results column. Hemric’s already frequently finished around that mark at Las Vegas and for the season at high-speed 1.5’s, Hemric’s finished between 18th to 20th in 4 of the 5 races, with him just finishing 20th at Kansas a few weeks ago.
Las Vegas Track History – Daniel Hemric has been pretty consistent at Las Vegas and he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 17th to 23rd with his average finish being 20.3. This spring, Hemric started 34th, had a 27.9 average running position, had the 30th best Speed Ranking and then finished 19th. Over his other three starts, Hemric had results of 22nd (spring 2022), 17th (fall 2019) and 23rd (spring 2019).

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